How Low Can The XRP Price Go?

XRP’s price peaked at $3.65 in July 2025 and is now trading near $1.12, a decline of roughly 70% from that high. The six-month window referenced here, which captures a 47% drop, places the current episode firmly within a pattern XRP has repeated three times in the past five years. The question is not whether this kind of drop is unusual for XRP. It is not. The question is how much further it can extend.

The Crash Record: Five Years, Four Episodes

1. SEC Lawsuit Shock (Dec 2020 to Jan 2021): The SEC filed suit against Ripple on December 22, 2020, alleging that XRP was an unregistered security. Major U.S. exchanges, including Coinbase (COIN), delisted the token within weeks. XRP fell from $0.75 to a low of $0.17 in a matter of weeks, a 73% collapse. The XRP-specific catalyst made it far more severe than the broader crypto market experienced at the same time.
2. Post-Peak Crypto Bear Market (Apr 2021 to Jun 2022): XRP reached $1.96 in April 2021 and could not hold that level as the broader market rolled over. The Terra/LUNA collapse in May 2022 accelerated the sell-off sharply. By June 2022, XRP was at $0.29, an 85% drop from its cycle high over roughly 14 months. Within that window, a six-month subset (November 2021 to May 2022) saw a decline exceeding 60%.
3. Post-FTX Continuation Bear (Nov 2022 to Dec 2022): The FTX collapse in November 2022 delivered another 40%+ leg lower across select crypto assets (primarily Solana) within a six-week span. XRP, already beaten down from the Luna collapse, dropped below $0.35 by year-end 2022.
4. Post-ATH Correction (Jul 2025 to Jun 2026): The Trump administration’s 100% China tariff announcement in October 2025 triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history, wiping out $19 billion in leveraged positions. XRP entered Q4 2025 already weakened and fell 35% in that quarter alone. A brief January 2026 relief rally to $2.41 faded quickly. XRP has now declined approximately 68% from its $3.65 peak, with the six-month figure at 46%.

XRP isn’t the only major asset feeling the pressure of this systemic crypto market reset. For a look at how this volatility is impacting crypto-heavy corporate equities on Wall Street, read our companion piece: How Low Can MSTR Stock Go?

Tally: In the last five years, XRP has experienced four separate drawdown events exceeding 40% within a six-month window.

So How Low Can It Go?

Three technical reference points matter here:

1. The 200-week EMA: This level, currently near $1.40, acted as the floor in May 2022 when XRP held at $0.57 before losing it and plunging 50% to $0.28. XRP is already below it today, which historically has signaled further downside before any durable recovery.
2. The 2-week Gaussian Channel lower band: This indicator has caught the bottom of every XRP bear market since 2017: $0.005 in March 2017, $0.10 in March 2020, and $0.29 in June 2022. That band currently sits between $0.70 and $0.90. Analyst ChartNerd, whose methodology flagged the prior three bottoms, puts the current cycle floor in that zone.
3. Near-term structural support: The $1.26 to $1.28 range, which held through March and April 2026, has now been broken. Today’s price action shows XRP hovering between $1.16 and $1.18. Analysts identify $0.92 as the next meaningful floor, with $0.63 as a worst-case scenario if that fails.

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What Is Different This Time

The 2022 collapse happened when XRP carried an active SEC lawsuit, had no ETF products, and had no institutional infrastructure. In 2026, XRP has been classified as a commodity by the SEC and CFTC, spot XRP ETFs have accumulated over $1 billion in inflows, and financial institutions like Mastercard (MA) and Deutsche Bank (DB) have deepened their use of the XRP ecosystem. The structure of demand is meaningfully stronger. That does not make a drop to $0.80 impossible, but it does make a sustained stay at those levels less likely than in prior cycles.

On-chain signals are mixed but not uniformly bearish. Over 25 million XRP moved off exchanges recently, which typically signals accumulation rather than distribution. Binance inflows hit their lowest level of 2026 this week. Whale wallets have reached a record 332,230 addresses. These are not signals of panic selling; they are signals of holders absorbing the decline.

The Bottom Line

XRP has a documented history of 40%+ six-month crashes, having done it four times since 2021. The current 46% drop is well within that historical range, not an outlier. Based on prior cycle structures and the Gaussian Channel framework, the credible floor sits between $0.70 and $0.92, representing a further 20% to 40% decline from current levels. The $1.14 to $1.18 zone is the immediate test. According to the Gaussian Channel framework, a daily close below $1.00 aligns with historical patterns of further downside toward the lower band targets. Technical indicators suggest that any bounce below the $1.40 200-week EMA may face heavy resistance, warranting caution from market participants.