Trade Desk (TTD)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $17.58 | Market Cap: $8.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising

Trade Desk (TTD)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $17.58
Market Cap: $8.3 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Advertising

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 9.9%

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%

Key risks
TTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 9.9%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
5 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more.
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146%
8 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
9 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
10 Key risks
TTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more.

TTD in ETFs

Weight = TTD's share of each fund

SPY0.01%
VOO0.01%
IVV0.01%
VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
RSP0.19%
VB0.09%
+22 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/22/2026

Trade Desk (TTD) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Q1 2026 Earnings and Weak Q2 2026 Guidance. The Trade Desk (TTD) reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results (ended March 31, 2026) on May 7, 2026, with GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08, missing analysts' consensus estimates that ranged from $0.09 to $0.32 per share. While revenue of $689 million slightly beat expectations, the company's Q2 2026 revenue guidance of "at least $750 million" fell short of FactSet's consensus of $771 million. This downbeat outlook triggered a significant stock decline of over 15% in extended trading following the announcement.

2. Slowing Revenue Growth and Macroeconomic Headwinds. The company experienced a notable deceleration in year-over-year revenue growth, dropping to 12% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 25% in the prior-year period (Q1 2025) and 14% in fiscal Q4 2025. This slowdown was attributed by management to "headwinds in the macro environment," including a volatile marketing environment and a more deliberate approach by companies to ad spending. Additionally, gross margin sharply decreased to 74% in fiscal Q1 2026, down from 81% in fiscal Q4 2025, indicating rising costs of revenue.

Show more
Updated on 7/22/2026

Trade Desk (TTD) stock has lost about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Q1 2026 Earnings and Weak Q2 2026 Guidance. The Trade Desk (TTD) reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results (ended March 31, 2026) on May 7, 2026, with GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08, missing analysts' consensus estimates that ranged from $0.09 to $0.32 per share. While revenue of $689 million slightly beat expectations, the company's Q2 2026 revenue guidance of "at least $750 million" fell short of FactSet's consensus of $771 million. This downbeat outlook triggered a significant stock decline of over 15% in extended trading following the announcement.

2. Slowing Revenue Growth and Macroeconomic Headwinds. The company experienced a notable deceleration in year-over-year revenue growth, dropping to 12% in fiscal Q1 2026 from 25% in the prior-year period (Q1 2025) and 14% in fiscal Q4 2025. This slowdown was attributed by management to "headwinds in the macro environment," including a volatile marketing environment and a more deliberate approach by companies to ad spending. Additionally, gross margin sharply decreased to 74% in fiscal Q1 2026, down from 81% in fiscal Q4 2025, indicating rising costs of revenue.

3. Publicis Groupe Dispute. In March 2026, advertising giant Publicis Groupe temporarily withdrew its recommendation of The Trade Desk following an audit that alleged discrepancies in fee structures. This public dispute with a key partner generated uncertainty and contributed to reduced ad spending, further impacting the company's soft fiscal Q2 2026 guidance. Although the parties privately settled the matter on June 12, 2026, with Publicis resuming its recommendation, the prolonged dispute weighed on the stock for several months.

4. Significant Net Insider Selling. Despite a substantial open-market purchase by President and CEO Jeffrey Terry Green of 6 million shares for $148.1 million on March 5, 2026, overall insider trading activity since March 31, 2026, shows a net selling position. Across 177 Form 4 filings, insiders reported $1.359 billion in sales against $148.9 million in buys, resulting in a net selling position of $1.210 billion. This net selling indicates a broader lack of insider confidence in the stock's near-term trajectory.

5. Increased Competitive Pressures and Executive Turnover. The Trade Desk faces intensifying competitive pressures, particularly from Amazon.com in the connected television (CTV) advertising market, and the emerging threat of AI-driven advertising solutions, such as those from OpenAI. Compounding this, an unexplained Chief Financial Officer transition occurred in early 2026, with Alex Kayyal departing, which raised investor eyebrows and contributed to stock uncertainty.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -22.5% change in TTD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267222026Change
Stock Price ($)22.6917.58-22.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,8962,9692.5%
Net Income Margin (%)15.3%14.6%-4.8%
P/E Multiple24.619.3-21.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4804751.1%
Cumulative Contribution-22.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
TTD-22.5% 
Market (SPY)14.9%13.3%
Sector (XLC)-1.5%33.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -53.7% change in TTD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257222026Change
Stock Price ($)37.9617.58-53.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,7912,9696.4%
Net Income Margin (%)15.7%14.6%-7.3%
P/E Multiple42.219.3-54.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4884752.8%
Cumulative Contribution-53.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
TTD-53.7% 
Market (SPY)9.9%18.7%
Sector (XLC)-6.9%32.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -75.6% change in TTD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -77.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257222026Change
Stock Price ($)71.9917.58-75.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,5702,96915.5%
Net Income Margin (%)16.0%14.6%-9.1%
P/E Multiple86.519.3-77.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4954754.3%
Cumulative Contribution-75.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
TTD-75.6% 
Market (SPY)22.0%14.1%
Sector (XLC)1.6%25.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -77.2% change in TTD stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -96.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237222026Change
Stock Price ($)77.2217.58-77.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,6452,96980.5%
Net Income Margin (%)4.7%14.6%210.1%
P/E Multiple489.119.3-96.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4904753.2%
Cumulative Contribution-77.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
TTD-77.2% 
Market (SPY)74.6%38.5%
Sector (XLC)73.1%40.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
TTD Return14%-51%61%63%-68%-52%-77%
Peers Return1%-46%81%67%11%5%92%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TTD Win Rate50%25%67%67%33%29% 
Peers Win Rate54%33%75%68%52%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TTD Max Drawdown-46%-56%-30%-18%-71%-57% 
Peers Max Drawdown-14%-54%-20%-20%-35%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventTTDS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-41.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-16.8%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.1%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven13 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-23.8%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven95 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-54.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven118.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven368 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-54.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven118.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven50 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-24.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven25 days105 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP

In The Past

Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventTTDS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-41.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-23.8%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven95 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-54.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven118.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven368 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-54.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven118.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven50 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-24.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven25 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-31.7%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.4%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven105 days6 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP

In The Past

Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Trade Desk (TTD)

Trade Desk (TTD) is a technology company that operates a self-service, cloud-based platform designed for the programmatic advertising industry. The company's core function is to empower ad buyers, typically advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers, to create, manage, and optimize their digital advertising campaigns.

The platform facilitates data-driven ad purchasing across a comprehensive range of digital formats and channels. This includes display, video, audio, native advertising, and social media, reaching consumers on various devices such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV (CTV). Beyond its robust ad campaign management tools, Trade Desk also provides supplementary data and other value-added services to enhance campaign performance and insights.

Its primary customer base consists of advertising agencies and other service providers who utilize the platform to efficiently buy and manage digital ad inventory on behalf of their advertiser clients, making Trade Desk a key player on the "buy-side" of the digital advertising ecosystem.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • It's like Booking.com or Expedia, but for advertisers to buy and optimize digital ad space.
  • Salesforce for digital advertising campaigns.
  • Think of it as Google Ads or Facebook Ads, but for buying and optimizing ads across the entire open internet.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Cloud-Based Advertising Platform: A self-service platform enabling buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels.
  • Data and Value-Added Services: Supplementary services that provide insights and additional tools to enhance advertising campaign performance.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The Trade Desk (TTD) primarily sells its cloud-based advertising platform and services to other companies, specifically **advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers**. These entities use TTD's platform to manage digital advertising campaigns on behalf of their advertiser clients. While Trade Desk serves thousands of individual advertising agencies globally, many of these agencies are subsidiaries of larger, publicly traded advertising holding companies. These holding companies represent a significant portion of the global advertising spend and therefore, their networks of agencies constitute a major part of Trade Desk's customer base. The major customer companies (or the parent companies of the agencies that are direct customers) include:
  • WPP plc (Symbol: WPP)
  • Omnicom Group Inc. (Symbol: OMC)
  • Publicis Groupe S.A. (Symbol: PUBGY - ADR; PUB.PA - Euronext Paris)
  • Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (Symbol: IPG)
  • Dentsu Group Inc. (Symbol: DNTUY - ADR; 9697.T - TSE)
  • Accenture Song (a division of Accenture plc, Symbol: ACN)

AI Analysis | Feedback

The Trade Desk (TTD) relies on several major suppliers to operate its demand-side platform and facilitate digital advertising campaigns. These include cloud infrastructure providers and supply-side platforms (SSPs) that provide access to ad inventory.

  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Magnite (MGNI)
  • PubMatic (PUBM)
  • Google (GOOGL)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Jeff Green
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder

Jeff Green is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of The Trade Desk, which he founded in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, he co-founded AdECN, an online advertising exchange, in 2004. AdECN was acquired by Microsoft in 2007, after which Green spent two years leading the Microsoft Online Services Division.

Laura Schenkein
Chief Financial Officer

Laura Schenkein is the Chief Financial Officer at The Trade Desk, Inc. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning, risk management, record-keeping, and financial reporting. She brings extensive experience in finance and leadership, having held prominent roles in both public and private companies across the technology sector.

Dave Pickles
Chief Technology Officer and Founder

Dave Pickles is the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of The Trade Desk, overseeing all engineering, product innovation, and data science. He co-founded the company with Jeff Green in 2009. Earlier in his career, he was a senior engineer at the internet telephony startup CallWave, Inc. He later joined AdECN (which was acquired by Microsoft), where he and his team built the federated exchange for real-time bidding.

Samantha Jacobson
Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President

Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk after six years at Oracle, where she managed the global business development and strategy team. Before Oracle, Jacobson was at Datalogix, where she developed partnerships with major industry players such as Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. She also held various business development, partner management, and strategy positions at companies including eBay and American Express prior to Datalogix.

Ian Colley
Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President

Ian Colley is the Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, leading global communications, editorial content, content marketing, and social media. Before joining The Trade Desk, Colley spent over 20 years at IBM, where he led communications for various divisions, including IBM Cloud, IBM Finance, IBM Global Services, and IBM Europe.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks for The Trade Desk (TTD) are primarily concentrated in the highly dynamic and competitive digital advertising technology sector.

  1. Intense Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Consolidation of Ad Spend: The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform (DSP) in an industry facing significant competition from large, integrated technology companies often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon. These companies control vast amounts of first-party data and have proprietary advertising platforms, incentivizing advertisers to keep their spending within these ecosystems. This dynamic poses a continuous challenge to independent platforms like The Trade Desk in terms of market share, access to inventory, and overall growth prospects. For instance, Amazon's aggressive expansion in advertising, particularly in the Connected TV (CTV) market, and its partnerships with streaming platforms like Netflix, have intensified competitive pressures for TTD.
  2. Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Cookie Deprecation: The Trade Desk's core business of enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns is highly dependent on the collection and utilization of user data. The ongoing shift in the digital advertising landscape, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) and the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, presents a significant risk. While The Trade Desk has invested in privacy-centric identity solutions such as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), their effectiveness, widespread adoption, and compliance with evolving privacy laws are subject to continuous scrutiny and potential legal challenges, including class-action lawsuits alleging privacy violations.
  3. Ad Fraud, Brand Safety, and Lack of Transparency in the Programmatic Supply Chain: As a programmatic advertising platform, The Trade Desk is exposed to inherent industry risks related to ad fraud and brand safety. Ad fraud, which includes tactics like fake impressions, bot traffic, pixel stuffing, and ad stacking, can deplete advertiser budgets with no real engagement. Furthermore, brand safety concerns arise when automated ad placements result in advertisements appearing alongside inappropriate, offensive, or irrelevant content, potentially harming a brand's reputation. The complex and sometimes opaque nature of the programmatic advertising supply chain can also lead to a lack of transparency for advertisers regarding ad placements and associated costs, which The Trade Desk must continuously address to maintain client trust and platform integrity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Evolving privacy regulations and platform policies from major technology companies. This includes the impending deprecation of third-party cookies in web browsers like Google Chrome, as well as increased restrictions on app tracking and data usage from platforms like Apple (e.g., App Tracking Transparency framework). These shifts fundamentally challenge the data-driven targeting and measurement capabilities upon which The Trade Desk's self-service cloud-based advertising platform relies, potentially favoring "walled garden" ecosystems that control their own first-party data. While TTD is actively developing alternative identity solutions, the successful adoption and effectiveness of these solutions across the fragmented digital advertising landscape represent a significant, ongoing threat to its core business model.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The Trade Desk (symbol: TTD) operates within substantial addressable markets for its digital advertising platform and services. The company itself estimates its total addressable market to be approximately $1 trillion globally. Here's a breakdown of the addressable markets for its main products and services:
  • Global Digital Advertising Market: The global digital advertising market is projected to reach approximately $786.22 billion by 2026 and is expected to surpass $850 billion in 2026. Another estimate suggests the global online advertising market size will grow from $416.65 billion in 2026 to $1344.68 billion by 2034. The broader total addressable market for digital advertising is projected to expand from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2034.
  • Global Programmatic Advertising Market: The global programmatic advertising market size is estimated to be approximately $0.72 trillion (USD 720 billion) in 2026, with projections to reach $1.17 trillion by 2031. Another report indicates the global programmatic advertising market is likely to be valued at US$273.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$975.1 billion by 2033. Global programmatic ad spend is also forecast to surpass US$200 billion in 2026.
  • Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market: Global CTV ad spending is projected to surpass $45 billion by the end of 2026. For the U.S. specifically, CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. Another estimate for U.S. CTV advertising spending projects it will reach $32.57 billion in 2026.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The Trade Desk (TTD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:

  • Growth in Connected TV (CTV) Advertising: Connected TV remains a significant growth driver, with the company consistently reporting strong performance in this channel. The Trade Desk's platform is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of CTV, which is central to its long-term growth strategy.
  • Advancements in AI-driven Innovation with the Kokai Platform: The Trade Desk's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is crucial for future performance and innovation. Nearly all clients are currently running campaigns through Kokai, and the company aims to demonstrate that its AI consistently delivers superior results in an open, multi-publisher environment. Potential partnerships, such as those reportedly explored with OpenAI for AI-driven ad inventory, further underscore the importance of AI in its growth trajectory.
  • Expansion in Retail Media and Optimization of the Open Internet Supply Chain: The company is focused on expanding its retail data marketplace and simplifying measurement, user experience, and billing. The Trade Desk is also dedicated to improving the overall supply chain of the open internet, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the global advertising market. The increasing ad supply further strengthens the value proposition of independent, inventory-neutral platforms like The Trade Desk.
  • Increasing Advertiser Demand and Programmatic Advertising Adoption: The Trade Desk benefits from the ongoing shift of advertisers towards data-driven programmatic and streaming-first channels. As brands increasingly rely on automated ad buying to manage campaigns and optimize spending with real-time data, The Trade Desk's robust position in programmatic advertising is expected to fuel continued revenue expansion.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)

Share Repurchases

  • The Trade Desk utilized approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.
  • As of February 25, 2026, the board of directors authorized an additional $350 million for share repurchases, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of Class A common stock to $500 million.
  • Annual share buybacks amounted to $646.597 million in 2023 and $234.784 million in 2024.

Share Issuance

  • Stock-based compensation for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $1.259 billion, showing a 4.47% increase year-over-year.
  • Stock-based compensation was $494.7 million in 2024 and $491.6 million in 2023.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $197 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
  • Capital expenditures were $98.238 million in 2024 and $46.79 million in 2023, the latter being a five-year low.
  • Expected capital expenditures are $187.6 million for 2026 and $196.6 million for 2027, primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
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Better Bets vs. Trade Desk (TTD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
Mkt Price17.58342.09244.85627.1744.2911.03144.57
Mkt Cap8.34,138.92,630.41,589.2186.20.2887.7
Rev LTM2,969422,499742,776214,962139,146362177,054
Op Inc LTM602138,12985,42288,59329,5231357,472
FCF LTM82964,429-2,47248,25319,8614110,345
FCF 3Y Avg68669,47421,34650,10117,8263219,586
CFO LTM1,093174,353148,531124,00037,3396080,670
CFO 3Y Avg845138,013120,52798,82337,0734967,948

Growth & Margins

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
Rev Chg LTM15.5%17.5%14.2%26.2%2.8%18.1%16.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg21.8%14.1%12.3%22.4%0.7%22.8%18.0%
Rev Chg Q11.8%21.8%16.6%33.1%2.9%25.3%19.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.5%4.9%3.6%7.0%0.7%5.2%4.2%
Op Inc Chg LTM32.8%17.5%19.2%21.2%1.3%201.1%20.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg82.4%24.3%108.4%50.4%-0.8%135.7%66.4%
Op Mgn LTM20.3%32.7%11.5%41.2%21.2%3.6%20.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.7%31.5%10.2%40.5%21.4%-0.2%19.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.7%0.3%-0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM36.8%41.3%20.0%57.7%26.8%16.6%31.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.9%37.3%18.1%55.9%27.2%16.2%30.1%
FCF/Rev LTM27.9%15.2%-0.3%22.4%14.3%11.5%14.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg27.0%19.3%3.5%29.3%13.1%10.5%16.2%

Valuation

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
Mkt Cap8.34,138.92,630.41,589.2186.20.2887.7
P/S2.89.83.57.41.30.53.2
P/Op Inc13.930.030.817.96.315.116.5
P/EBIT13.621.222.317.56.215.116.3
P/E19.325.829.022.510.721.622.1
P/CFO7.623.717.712.85.03.310.2
Total Yield5.2%4.1%3.5%4.8%15.5%4.6%4.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.2%0.0%0.3%6.2%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.2%2.7%1.0%3.4%10.0%15.9%3.8%
D/E0.10.00.10.11.10.10.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.00.00.01.0-0.8-0.0

Returns

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
1M Rtn-2.4%-2.2%5.2%11.2%-0.7%2.8%1.1%
3M Rtn-25.4%0.9%-4.1%-7.0%-2.0%2.3%-3.1%
6M Rtn-50.2%4.3%5.9%2.5%16.5%-11.5%3.4%
12M Rtn-78.5%79.3%7.6%-10.7%10.1%-18.4%-1.5%
3Y Rtn-79.1%187.6%88.3%115.0%59.9%147.9%101.7%
1M Excs Rtn-2.8%-2.5%4.8%10.9%-1.0%2.4%0.7%
3M Excs Rtn-30.4%-3.1%-8.2%-12.3%-8.8%-2.9%-8.5%
6M Excs Rtn-58.9%-4.0%-4.3%-6.3%6.7%-17.0%-5.3%
12M Excs Rtn-97.0%61.5%-12.1%-30.7%-7.6%-37.5%-21.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-146.4%111.1%17.5%37.9%6.3%64.5%27.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Advertising technology platform2,8962,4451,9461,5781,196
Total2,8962,4451,9461,5781,196


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$17.58 
Market Cap ($ Bil)8.3 
First Trading Date09/21/2016 
Distance from 52W High-80.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$20.91$30.87
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-15.9%-43.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility53.6%64.4%
Downside Capture85.86128.85
Upside Capture-67.00-78.68
Correlation (SPY)13.9%13.9%
TTD Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.880.530.650.800.731.48
Up Beta0.650.080.601.070.811.58
Down Beta2.011.732.101.521.692.01
Up Capture-50%-69%-21%-33%-32%38%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days7152744115378
Down Capture135%109%84%132%114%109%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days14263680134368

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with TTD
TTD-78.2%64.3%-2.06-
Sector ETF (XLC)2.5%13.9%-0.0626.6%
Equity (SPY)20.0%12.6%1.1614.4%
Gold (GLD)21.2%28.1%0.67-1.3%
Commodities (DBC)33.0%19.1%1.361.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.9%14.0%0.707.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.6%42.9%-1.2116.4%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with TTD
TTD-24.9%67.0%-0.14-
Sector ETF (XLC)7.0%20.8%0.2553.7%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5849.6%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.761.7%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.5%0.379.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0433.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)15.2%53.5%0.4631.5%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with TTD
TTD18.6%68.3%0.55-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.0%22.1%0.4653.5%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7246.3%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.1%0.581.5%
Commodities (DBC)7.1%17.9%0.3113.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2030.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.5%66.2%0.9917.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity76.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 61520265.2%
Average Daily Volume23.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity474.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares16.2%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/10/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/2026-1.7%-13.1%-17.3%
2/25/2026-4.8%0.0%-13.6%
11/6/2025-6.3%-6.6%-14.2%
8/7/2025-38.6%-42.5%-41.1%
5/8/202518.6%29.4%19.3%
2/12/2025-33.0%-38.0%-55.9%
11/7/2024-5.6%-5.0%1.7%
8/8/202412.5%13.9%12.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111213
# Negative131211
Median Positive17.5%14.1%14.8%
Median Negative-5.6%-10.5%-13.6%
Max Positive36.2%46.4%41.0%
Max Negative-38.6%-42.5%-55.9%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/2026-1.7%-13.1%-17.3%
2/25/2026-4.8%0.0%-13.6%
11/6/2025-6.3%-6.6%-14.2%
8/7/2025-38.6%-42.5%-41.1%
5/8/202518.6%29.4%19.3%
2/12/2025-33.0%-38.0%-55.9%
11/7/2024-5.6%-5.0%1.7%
8/8/202412.5%13.9%12.5%
5/8/20243.1%4.9%9.5%
2/15/202417.5%7.6%3.5%
11/9/2023-16.7%-13.7%-6.7%
8/9/2023-4.7%-10.1%3.7%
5/10/2023-0.7%1.8%14.8%
2/15/202332.8%13.0%17.9%
11/9/2022-8.0%23.5%11.9%
8/9/202236.2%35.3%18.1%
5/10/2022-0.9%22.0%20.0%
2/16/20220.5%-7.9%-18.8%
11/8/202129.5%46.4%39.6%
8/9/2021-3.2%-3.7%-10.4%
5/10/2021-26.0%-21.8%-8.6%
2/18/20216.7%-10.9%-13.4%
11/5/202026.6%14.3%41.0%
8/6/20202.6%-1.9%-8.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111213
# Negative131211
Median Positive17.5%14.1%14.8%
Median Negative-5.6%-10.5%-13.6%
Max Positive36.2%46.4%41.0%
Max Negative-38.6%-42.5%-55.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/10/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/15/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/10/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/15/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q
12/31/202102/16/202210-K
09/30/202111/08/202110-Q
06/30/202108/09/202110-Q
03/31/202105/10/202110-Q
12/31/202002/19/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/07/202010-Q
03/31/202005/08/202010-Q
12/31/201902/28/202010-K
09/30/201911/08/201910-Q
06/30/201908/09/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue 750.00 Mil 10.6% Higher NewGuidance: 678.00 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 260.00 Mil 33.3% Higher NewGuidance: 195.00 Mil for Q1 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Revenue 678.00 Mil -19.3% Lower NewGuidance: 840.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 195.00 Mil -48.0% Lower NewGuidance: 375.00 Mil for Q4 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Revenue 840.00 Mil 17.2% Higher NewActual: 717.00 Mil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA 375.00 Mil 35.4% Higher NewActual: 277.00 Mil for Q3 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/13/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jacobson, Samantha DirectSell601202621.1453,6811,134,816276,913Form
2Falberg, Kathryn E DirectSell309202630.45102,8283,131,11359,256Form
3Falberg, Kathryn E Family TrustSell309202630.4850,000  Form
4Green, Jeffrey TerryPresident and CEOLimited PartnershipBuy304202625.082,314,30458,042,744150,480,000Form
5Green, Jeffrey TerryPresident and CEOLimited PartnershipBuy304202624.971,685,69642,091,82992,031,829Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jacobson, Samantha DirectSell601202621.1453,6811,134,816276,913Form
2Falberg, Kathryn E DirectSell309202630.45102,8283,131,11359,256Form
3Falberg, Kathryn E Family TrustSell309202630.4850,000  Form
4Green, Jeffrey TerryPresident and CEOLimited PartnershipBuy304202625.082,314,30458,042,744150,480,000Form
5Green, Jeffrey TerryPresident and CEOLimited PartnershipBuy304202624.971,685,69642,091,82992,031,829Form
6Green, Jeffrey TerryPresident and CEOLimited PartnershipBuy304202623.982,000,00047,966,69347,966,693Form
7Cunningham, Andrea Lee DirectSell912202548.201,40367,625242,687Form
8Grant, Jay RChief Legal OfficerDirectSell811202591.1851,2904,676,67919,899,912Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/22/2026