Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $36.86 | Market Cap: $18.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $36.86Market Cap: $18.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TTD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Trade Desk (TTD) experienced significant stock price fluctuations in late 2024. While specific details for a -32.9% movement from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025, are not available due to the future nature of the requested period, an analysis of the most recent available information (late 2024) reveals several factors that could contribute to a substantial decline in the stock price.
1. Disappointing Reaction to Q3 2024 Earnings Despite Beats: The Trade Desk reported strong third-quarter 2024 financial results on November 7, 2024, beating analyst estimates for both revenue and adjusted earnings per share. However, the stock still saw a significant decline of 7% to 12.5% immediately after the announcement. This was attributed to the "modest beat & bracket" failing to meet the market's exceptionally high expectations for a company trading at a premium valuation, indicating that investors were seeking a more substantial beat and raise to justify the stock's elevated multiple.
2. High Valuation and Elevated Expectations: In early December 2024, The Trade Desk's stock was characterized by "market-darling valuation multiples such as 134 times free cash flow and 30 times sales." This high valuation meant the stock was "priced for perfection," requiring extraordinary performance to sustain its price. Any indication of growth decelerating, even from a high base, or failure to significantly exceed expectations, could lead to a substantial re-rating and downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 208% | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -69% | 43% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -46% | 81% | 67% | 10% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 52% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -44% | -39% | -56% | -6% | -11% | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -52% | -5% | -4% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 695 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -64.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -64.3% loss requires a 179.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TTD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
| 03312025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | -33.0% | -33.0% |
| 05312022 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.5% | 34.6% | -23.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
| 03312025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | -33.0% | -33.0% |
| 05312022 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.5% | 34.6% | -23.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Trade Desk
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 133.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 897.2 |
| Rev LTM | 163,474 |
| Op Inc LTM | 53,933 |
| FCF LTM | 17,065 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 18,864 |
| CFO LTM | 73,014 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 61,315 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 897.2 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 24.2 |
| P/E | 32.3 |
| P/CFO | 18.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 199.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 118.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| 2/15/2024 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 16.2% | 14.1% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -9.0% | -13.4% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |