How Will Walmart Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The company has $1.1 Tril in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $713 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $30 Bil in operating profits and net income of $22 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Walmart’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -6.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.6% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| 5/16/2024 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| 2/20/2024 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| 11/16/2023 | -8.1% | -8.9% | -9.7% |
| 8/17/2023 | -2.2% | -0.7% | 3.4% |
| 5/18/2023 | 1.3% | -1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.6% | -3.4% | -3.7% |
| 11/15/2022 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% |
| 8/16/2022 | 5.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/17/2022 | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
| 2/17/2022 | 4.0% | 0.7% | 9.3% |
| 11/16/2021 | -2.5% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/17/2021 | -0.0% | -0.2% | -4.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -1.4% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 47.9% | 54.4% | 21.0% |
| 3Y History | 71.9% | 63.8% | 44.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Walmart stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Walmart. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| WMT Earnings Dates | WMT | AMZN | HD |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -8.0% | N/A* |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | -2.6% | -1.2% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -5.2% | -2.3% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | 7.9% | N/A* |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -6.7% | N/A* |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 9.8% | 0.9% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.6% | -3.5% | 2.9% |
| 5/16/2024 | 7.0% | 4.9% | 0.7% |
| 2/20/2024 | 3.2% | 4.9% | N/A* |
| 11/16/2023 | -8.1% | 19.5% | 0.9% |
| 8/17/2023 | -2.2% | 3.9% | -1.5% |
| 5/18/2023 | 1.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.6% | -16.2% | N/A* |
| 11/15/2022 | 6.5% | -10.8% | N/A* |
| 8/16/2022 | 5.1% | 18.4% | N/A* |
| 5/17/2022 | -11.4% | -20.2% | N/A* |
| 2/17/2022 | 4.0% | 11.4% | N/A* |
| 11/16/2021 | -2.5% | 2.7% | N/A* |
| 8/17/2021 | -0.0% | -9.9% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 19.0% | -56.1% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after WMT
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