Your Vistra Stock Thesis Has One Loose End
Vistra (VST) has told investors how much it expects to earn in 2027, and one assumption behind that forecast has weakened. The company sells power in Texas, and prices there for future delivery have dropped since the forecast was set. Vistra has kept the forecast anyway, and how firmly it stands is not settled yet.
Vistra’s 2027 Forecast Was Built On Higher Texas Prices
Vistra has set a 2027 adjusted EBITDA “midpoint opportunity range” of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion. Management based that range on where prices for future Texas power stood on October 31, 2025. On its second-quarter 2026 call, held on August 7, 2026, management said those Texas prices are now meaningfully lower. Analysts asked about Vistra’s guidance and outlook on that call.
Texas is also a large business for Vistra. Its Texas segment brought in $5.4 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, 0.8% less than the year before. Its East segment, by contrast, grew 9.1% over the same year, to $6.2 billion.
What Has Vistra Said About Its 2027 Forecast?
Management has said it is keeping the 2027 range because several factors offset the lower Texas prices. It named higher prices in PJM, another power market where Vistra sells, and its hedging program. It also named the nuclear PTC, which management says gives it downside protection.
Hedging has already shown up in results. Vistra’s generation business earned about $994 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026, against about $593 million a year earlier. Management said favorable hedging was the main reason for that improvement, but it also said it would not discuss its hedging strategies in detail on that call.
Management has said it has not changed its long-term forecast for the Texas market. It still expects demand for power there to grow at least 4% to 6% a year through 2030.
Its firmest statement is about 2026. Management has said it is confident of reaching at least the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA range of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. For 2027, management has only kept the range.
Vistra Expects To Update Its Forecast With Third-Quarter Results
Management has said it expects to update its guidance for both 2026 and 2027 on its third-quarter earnings call. The 2027 range is the figure to read first, because it is the one built on the older Texas prices.
If Vistra keeps its 2027 range at $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion on that call, the forecast will have held after the Texas prices behind it fell.
How To Act On VST?
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