What Could Arista Networks Stock Be Worth In Three Years?
Arista Networks (ANET) stock has returned 64% over the past six months, against 17.2% for the S&P 500. After that run, buyers pay 64.5 times trailing earnings. The stock’s own three-year average is 48.1 (quarter-end readings; those above 100 left out). So how much higher could the shares be three years from now, starting from a P/E this far above its own average?
Arista Stock Would Be Worth About $366 A Share
Arista stock would be worth about $366 a share in three years, against $207.35 today. That is a three-year upside of 76.7%. The figure is arithmetic, based on Arista’s trailing numbers and three Trefis assumptions, not a forecast. The table sets today’s numbers beside the scenario’s.
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.5 billion | $21.9 billion |
| Net margin | 38.4% | 38.3% |
| Earnings | $4.0 billion | $8.4 billion |
| P/E | 64.5 | 54.8 |
| Share price | $207.35 | $366.43 |
The whole gain, and more, comes from higher revenue. Some of it is then lost to a lower P/E. Trefis assumes a P/E in year three of 0.85 times today’s P/E, the rule it applies when today’s P/E is more than 1.15 times its own three-year average.
Arista earns most of its revenue from products: the Product segment was 84% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Management said on the fiscal Q2 2026 call that AI and enterprise customers drove significant growth, and it named Microsoft and Meta as its two longest-standing partners.
What Does Arista Have To Keep Doing?
Arista has to keep growing sales at close to the pace of the past year. Trefis assumes revenue grows 27.7% a year, against 33% in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026.
Management expects faster growth than that in fiscal 2026: on the fiscal Q2 2026 call, it raised its outlook to 40% revenue growth. It also guided fiscal Q3 revenue to about $3.3 billion, against just over $3 billion in Q2. Arista is expected to report Q3 on or around November 2, 2026. But the fiscal 2026 outlook covers one year, not three, and Arista needs parts to deliver it.
Arista’s multiyear purchase commitments reached $9.7 billion at the end of Q2, up from $3.6 billion a year earlier. Management said an industry-wide supply problem would last until 2028, so Arista has to turn those commitments into shipped products while parts stay scarce.
How Much Do Arista’s Growth And P/E Matter?
Arista’s upside changes most with revenue growth and the P/E, and hardly at all with the margin. The table shows the three-year upside when one assumption changes at a time.
| If instead | Three-year upside |
|---|---|
| Nothing changes (the scenario) | 76.7% |
| Revenue grows two points a year slower | 68.5% |
| The margin returns to its three-year average | 76.2% |
| The P/E stays where it is today | 107.9% |
| Five years at the same pace instead of three | 188.1% |
Slower revenue growth is the change in the table that lowers the upside the most. And Arista’s 33% growth in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2026 was faster than either of the two readings before it. Revenue grew 26% in the twelve months to fiscal Q2 2025 and 19.9% in the twelve months before that.
Trefis also holds the share count at today’s level. The count rose 0.8% over the past three years, so if it keeps rising, each share would be worth slightly less than the scenario shows.
Revenue growth is both the main source of the gain and the assumption closest to break-even. Growth would have to drop to 5.6% a year, 27 points below the past twelve months, before three years of owning the stock returned nothing. In its slowest of the last three fiscal years, Arista still grew revenue 19.5%.
The case holds as long as AI and enterprise customers keep ordering and Arista keeps getting the parts to ship. If the supply problem holds shipments back, Arista becomes a riskier bet that relies more on investors still paying a high P/E. Revenue at or above management’s guide in the next report would show Arista is still shipping what its customers order.
Does This Mean You Should Act On ANET?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.