Viasat Stock To $33?

Viasat (VSAT) stock has fallen 11% during the past day, and is currently trading at $46.39. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell VSAT stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $33 may not be out of reach. We believe there are a few things to fear in VSAT stock given its overall weak operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its low valuation, this makes the stock look risky.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $6.3 Bil in market cap, Viasat provides global broadband and communication services, including satellite-based internet, voice over IP, fixed satellite systems, mobile and fixed broadband modems, terminals, and network access solutions.

[1] Valuation Looks Low

This table highlights how VSAT is valued vs broader market. For more details see: VSAT Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Moderate

• Viasat has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 24.4% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 2.1% from $4.5 Bil to $4.6 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 3.0% to $1.2 Bil in the most recent quarter from $1.1 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how VSAT is growing vs broader market.

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• VSAT last 12 month operating income was $-45 Mil representing operating margin of -1.0%
• With cash flow margin of 33.9%, it generated nearly $1.6 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, VSAT generated nearly $-339 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about -7.3%

This table highlights how VSAT profitability vs broader market.

[4] Financial Stability Looks Weak

• VSAT Debt was $6.8 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $6.3 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 106.6%
• VSAT Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $1.3 Bil of $15 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 9.0%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

VSAT has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• VSAT stock fell 76.9% from a high of $67.00 on 5 November 2021 to $15.48 on 5 October 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
• The highest the stock has reached since then is $52.12 on 19 March 2026 , and currently trades at $46.39

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• VSAT stock fell 62.7% from a high of $73.60 on 2 January 2020 to $27.46 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• VSAT stock fell 57.4% from a high of $36.16 on 26 December 2007 to $15.42 on 27 October 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 April 2010

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read VSAT Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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