How Will Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $108 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $11 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-199 Mil in operating losses and net income of $3.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -4.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2025 | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.0% | -12.2% | -10.9% |
| 2/10/2025 | -3.1% | -1.7% | 5.4% |
| 11/4/2024 | 5.7% | 6.1% | -1.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.2% | -7.9% | -2.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 6.8% | 20.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| 11/6/2023 | -1.9% | -1.8% | -8.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | 3.1% | -0.9% | 0.9% |
| 5/1/2023 | 0.3% | -0.3% | -6.2% |
| 2/7/2023 | -4.9% | -2.7% | -7.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.8% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.7% | -9.6% | 0.6% |
| 1/26/2022 | 0.7% | 11.9% | 1.6% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.2% | 5.3% | 12.7% |
| 7/29/2021 | 0.6% | 1.3% | -0.2% |
| 4/29/2021 | 3.0% | 0.6% | -1.5% |
| 2/1/2021 | -6.2% | -7.5% | -10.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -2.7% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -20.6% | -20.7% | -16.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -9.5% | -13.7% | -15.2% |
| 3Y History | -25.7% | -20.3% | -8.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Vertex Pharmaceuticals. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRTX Earnings Dates | VRTX | BIIB | IONS | BMRN |
| 8/4/2025 | -20.6% | 3.3% | 0.2% | N/A* |
| 5/5/2025 | -10.0% | 0.7% | 9.6% | -1.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 5.7% | -4.2% | N/A* | -5.6% |
| 5/6/2024 | 1.9% | 9.6% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/6/2023 | -1.9% | N/A* | 5.9% | -9.3% |
| 8/1/2023 | 3.1% | -0.4% | N/A* | 1.2% |
| 5/1/2023 | 0.3% | N/A* | N/A* | 4.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | -4.9% | N/A* | N/A* | 0.1% |
| 10/27/2022 | 9.0% | 1.6% | N/A* | -6.9% |
| 8/4/2022 | 4.8% | 4.7% | N/A* | 5.2% |
| 5/5/2022 | -4.7% | -2.2% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.2% | 2.2% | N/A* | 15.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | 0.6% | 0.9% | N/A* | -0.3% |
| 4/29/2021 | 3.0% | 2.4% | N/A* | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -50.8% | 29.9% | 1.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after VRTX
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