VMC Stock Falls -11% In A 6-day Losing Spree On JPMorgan Downgrade
Vulcan Materials (VMC) – a producer and supplier of construction aggregates and asphalt – hit a 6-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -11%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $4.6 Bil over the last 6 days and currently stands at $36 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 3.6% compared to -0.7% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] JPMorgan Downgrade to Neutral
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- Price target lowered to $320 from $335
- Q4 results and 2026 guidance missed expectations
- Impact: Stock price fell 1.3% on the day of the announcement, Increased bearish sentiment
[2] Weaker-Than-Expected Earnings and Guidance
- Q4 2025 EPS and revenue missed forecasts
- Fiscal 2026 guidance came in below consensus
- Impact: Multiple analysts lowered price targets, Highlighted demand headwinds
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are a few things to fear in VMC stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell VMC).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -11% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for VMC stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | VMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -0.2% | 0.8% |
| 6D (Current Streak) | -11.3% | -1.2% |
| 1M (21D) | -11.6% | -0.0% |
| 3M (63D) | -6.4% | -0.9% |
| YTD 2026 | -3.6% | -0.7% |
| 2025 | 11.7% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 14.1% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 30.8% | 24.2% |
Take a look at what history tells you about whether past dips like this have been buying opportunities or traps: VMC Dip Buyer Analysis.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 14 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 99 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 6 | 53 |
| 4D | 3 | 7 |
| 5D | 2 | 16 |
| 6D | 3 | 16 |
| 7D or more | 0 | 7 |
| Total >=3 D | 14 | 99 |
Key Financials for Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $7.4 Bil | $7.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $1.4 Bil | $1.6 Bil |
| Net Income | $911.9 Mil | $1.1 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $2.3 Bil | $1.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $542.6 Mil | $335.7 Mil |
| Net Income | $374.9 Mil | $252.0 Mil |
The losing streak VMC stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.