Is There More Steam In Valero Energy Stock?

VLO: Valero Energy logo
VLO
Valero Energy

The shares of Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) have surpassed pre-pandemic levels assisted by the strength in benchmark crude oil and natural gas prices and subsequently higher refinery margins. The company owns 15 refineries in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. with a throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day.  Notably, the refining segment contributes 95% of the company’s total revenues. Macroeconomic uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine war has pumped up the oil & gas benchmarks in recent months, benefiting the sector, including Valero Energy. Is the stock likely to gain more in the coming weeks and months? Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, VLO stock has a 52% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Valero Energy Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: VLO 4.1%, vs. S&P 500 0.05%; Outperformed market (20% event probability)

  • Valero Energy stock gained 4.1% over a five-day trading period ending 04/04/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which increased by just 0.05% over the same period.
  • Returns of 4.1% or higher over a five-day period on 497 occasions out of 2516 (20%); Stock rose in the next five days in 294 of these 497 instances (59%).

Ten Days: VLO 12%, vs. S&P 500 1.9%; Outperformed market (5% event probability)

  • Valero Energy stock rallied 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which gained 2%.
  • Returns of 12% or higher over a 10-day period on 137 occasions out of 2516 (5%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 92 of these 137 instances (67%).
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Twenty-One Days: VLO 20%, vs. S&P 500 3.9%; Outperformed market (5% event probability)

  • Valero Energy stock gained 20% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which gained 4%.
  • Returns of 20% or higher over 21-day period on 118 occasions out of 2516 (5%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 61 of these 118 instances (52%).

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 Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 VLO Return 0% 35% 48%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -5% 103%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% -6% 269%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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