Should You Buy or Sell Energy Fuels At $12?
Following its collaboration with Vulcan Elements to create a domestic supply chain for rare earth magnets, Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE: UUUU) saw its stock price jump 18% on Tuesday, August 26, 2025. This latest surge brings the company’s year-to-date gains to a remarkable 116%.
Rare earth magnets are vital components across numerous high-tech industries, including robotics and semiconductor manufacturing. The partnership will likely reduce reliance on foreign supply chains, particularly from China. But, given the recent significant increase, the key question is whether UUUU stock is still a good buy. We believe it is. Our analysis considers the company’s current valuation in relation to its recent operating performance and financial health, both historically and currently.
That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – RKLB Stock To $85?
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How Does Energy Fuels’ Valuation Look vs. The S&P 500?
Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, UUUU stock looks very expensive compared to the broader market.
- Energy Fuels has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 41.7 vs. a figure of 3.3 for the S&P 500
How Have Energy Fuels’ Revenues Grown Over Recent Years?
Energy Fuels’ Revenues have seen stellar growth over recent years.
- Energy Fuels has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 82.7% over the last 3 years (vs. increase of 5.3% for S&P 500)
- Its revenues have grown 42.7% from $46 Mil to $65 Mil in the last 12 months (vs. growth of 5.2% for S&P 500)
- But, its quarterly revenues plunged 51.7% to $4.2 Mil in the most recent quarter from $8.7 Mil a year ago (vs. 6.1% improvement for S&P 500)
- Note that Energy Fuels chose to sell a significantly lower volume of uranium on the spot market in the latest quarter, holding its inventory in anticipation of higher future prices.
How Profitable Is Energy Fuels?
Energy Fuels’ profit margins are considerably worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.
- Energy Fuels’ Operating Income over the last four quarters was $-86 Mil, which represents a very poor Operating Margin of -131.8% (vs. 18.8% for S&P 500)
- Energy Fuels’ Operating Cash Flow (OCF) over this period was $-88 Mil, pointing to a very poor OCF Margin of -135.1% (vs. 20.2% for S&P 500)
- For the last four-quarter period, Energy Fuels’ Net Income was $-93 Mil – indicating a very poor Net Income Margin of -143.0% (vs. 12.8% for S&P 500)
Does Energy Fuels Look Financially Stable?
Energy Fuels’ balance sheet looks very strong.
- Energy Fuels’ Debt was nil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $2.6 Bil (as of 8/26/2025).
- Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $198 Mil of the $702 Mil in Total Assets for Energy Fuels. This yields a very strong Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 28.2% (vs. 7.0% for S&P 500)
How Resilient Is UUUU Stock During A Downturn?
UUUU stock has fared worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. While investors have their fingers crossed for a soft landing by the U.S. economy, how bad can things get if there is another recession? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes.
Inflation Shock (2022)
- UUUU stock fell 55.6% from a high of $10.99 on 12 November 2021 to $4.88 on 5 July 2022, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is 12.31 on 26 August 2025
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
- UUUU stock fell 55.7% from a high of $1.91 on 1 January 2020 to $0.85 on 12 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
- The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 April 2020
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
- UUUU stock fell 98.1% from a high of $235.00 on 13 April 2007 to $4.50 on 3 December 2008, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
- The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 May 2010
Putting All The Pieces Together: What It Means For UUUU Stock
In summary, Energy Fuels’ performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows:
• Growth: Strong
• Profitability: Very Weak
• Financial Stability: Very Strong
• Downturn Resilience: Weak
• Overall: Moderate
The Verdict
While Energy Fuels Inc.’s valuation appears high at first glance, a closer look at its future potential suggests it may be a reasonable investment. The company’s revenue is expected to drop significantly from $112 million in 2024 to $61 million in 2025 because of its strategic decision to hold back uranium sales in anticipation of higher prices. This near-term decline in sales makes its current valuation look expensive.
However, analysts are forecasting a major rebound. The consensus estimate for 2026 is a staggering $238 million in sales, nearly four times the 2025 revenue. At the current stock price of around $12 per share, this means the company is trading at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of just 10x. This is a respectable valuation for a company in this industry, especially when compared to its last three-year average P/S ratio of approximately 40x.
Despite its recent price surge, this forward-looking perspective suggests the stock has further room for growth.
Of course, we could be wrong in our assessment. Investors may be hesitant to pay 10x forward revenue due to potential market volatility, especially given the stock’s historical underperformance during economic downturns. However, for a long-term investor with a 3-5 year horizon who can tolerate substantial losses, the stock may present a compelling opportunity even at its current elevated price.
See, there always remains a meaningful risk when investing in a single, or just a handful, of stocks. Consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
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