Will UPS Stock Rebound After A 14% Fall In A Month?

UPS: United Parcel Service logo
United Parcel Service

UPS stock (NYSE: UPS) has seen a 14% fall in a month, significantly underperforming the broader S&P500 index, down 3%. Last month, FedEx reported downbeat Q1 fiscal 2023 results. The big e-commerce surge seen through the lockdown phase of the Covid-19 pandemic is now cooling off, impacting the delivery volumes for logistics companies. Furthermore, the weakening U.S. economy and high inflation are weighing on the operating margins. To reduce costs, FedEx has decided to close some offices, cut its flight frequencies, and cancel some network capacity projects, among other actions. The company also cut its earnings outlook for the next quarter. This had a rub-on effect on other logistics stocks, including UPS. It is likely that UPS will also face similar issues of softening delivery volumes and rising costs, weighing on its earnings outlook. Investors will be closely eyeing the Oct 25 Q3 results announcement for UPS.

Now that UPS stock has seen a fall of 14% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of an increase in UPS stock over the next month. A move of -14% or more in a month for UPS has occurred 40 times in the past ten years. Of those instances, 29 resulted in UPS stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 29 of 40 or a 73% chance of a rise in UPS stock over the next month. See our analysis of UPS Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

  • After moving 0.5% or more over five days, the stock rose on 53% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving -3.5% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 55% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving -14.3% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 73% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in UPS stock over the next five days, ten days, and the next month. Note that this pattern is based on historical performance, and given that UPS is nearing its Q3 results announcement, its stock move will primarily be driven based on its performance in the past quarter.

UPS Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: XPO highest at 7.2%; UNP lowest at -0.6%
  • Ten-Day Return: XPO highest at 7.2%; UNP lowest at -5.3%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: AMZN highest at -4.1%; FDX lowest at -23.2%

While UPS stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how UPS’ Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Given the higher inflation and rising interest rates, among other factors, UPS stock has seen a 22% fall this year. Can it drop more? See how low UPS stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for UPS vs. Amerco.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 UPS Return 4% -22% 46%
 S&P 500 Return 6% -21% 69%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 7% -21% 212%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/6/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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