How To Trade UnitedHealth Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Looking at the past five years of data, UNH stock has shown a tendency for positive one-day returns following earnings announcements in 53% of instances. The median one-day gain was 4.0%, with the largest single-day increase reaching 7.2%. While the actual results compared to consensus estimates will be crucial, understanding these historical patterns can provide an advantage for event-driven traders. There are two main approaches to utilize this information:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Traders may choose to position themselves before the earnings release, based on the historical probabilities.
• Post-Earnings Analysis: Alternatively, traders can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform their positioning.

Analysts’ consensus estimates for the upcoming quarter are earnings of $4.94 per share on revenue of $111.6 billion. This compares to year-ago quarter earnings of $6.80 per share on revenues of $98.86 billion. The anticipated contraction in profit margins, reflected in the lower EPS estimate despite higher revenue, is primarily attributed to rising medical costs.

From a fundamental perspective, UnitedHealth Group has a current market capitalization of approximately $267 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $410 billion in revenue, reporting $33 billion in operating profits and a net income of $22 billion, demonstrating strong operational profitability.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.9%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

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