How Will Ulta Beauty Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The company has $25 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Ulta Beauty’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 9.9%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/28/2025 | -7.1% | -3.0% | 4.3% |
| 5/29/2025 | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% |
| 3/13/2025 | 13.7% | 8.4% | 14.9% |
| 12/5/2024 | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | -4.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| 5/30/2024 | 2.5% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.2% | -7.4% | -23.4% |
| 11/30/2023 | 10.8% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| 8/24/2023 | -3.7% | -1.8% | -5.8% |
| 5/25/2023 | -13.4% | -12.9% | -4.7% |
| 3/9/2023 | 0.2% | -1.2% | 1.8% |
| 12/1/2022 | -0.3% | 1.9% | -0.2% |
| 8/25/2022 | -1.9% | 1.2% | -7.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.5% | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| 3/10/2022 | -2.9% | 2.1% | 5.8% |
| 12/2/2021 | -1.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% |
| 8/25/2021 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 5/27/2021 | 5.2% | -0.5% | 4.5% |
| 3/11/2021 | -8.4% | -8.1% | -5.7% |
| 12/3/2020 | -3.5% | -6.0% | -3.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -2.4% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 15.0% | 14.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -12.9% | -23.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -33.5% | -28.2% | -17.2% |
| 3Y History | -33.0% | -14.0% | -5.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ulta Beauty stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ulta Beauty. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| ULTA Earnings Dates | ULTA | SBH |
| 8/28/2025 | -7.1% | 15.1% |
| 5/29/2025 | 11.8% | -11.3% |
| 3/13/2025 | 13.7% | -6.5% |
| 12/5/2024 | 9.0% | -6.3% |
| 8/29/2024 | -4.0% | 26.1% |
| 5/30/2024 | 2.5% | 12.7% |
| 11/30/2023 | 10.8% | 9.9% |
| 8/24/2023 | -3.7% | -18.4% |
| 5/25/2023 | -13.4% | -4.1% |
| 12/1/2022 | -0.3% | -11.9% |
| 8/25/2022 | -1.9% | 10.7% |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.5% | -0.2% |
| 12/2/2021 | -1.3% | -4.7% |
| 8/25/2021 | -0.3% | -6.6% |
| 5/27/2021 | 5.2% | -10.6% |
| CORRELATION | 27.0% |
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