After Strong Consolidation Last Week, Unilever Stock Looks Set To Break Out

+14.71%
Upside
46.18
Market
52.97
Trefis
UL: Unilever logo
UL
Unilever

Unilever stock (NYSE: UL) is up almost 3% in the past week (5 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was down 4% over this period. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned -4.9% and -3.6% respectively, a drop much less than that in the broader markets. Unilever had posted a strong recovery in its Q3 ’21 trading statement published in October 2021, with revenue rising from $14.6 billion in Q3 ’20 to $15.2 billion in Q3 ’21, largely driven by a revival in beauty and personal care revenue. Most of the sales growth came from a rise in selling prices, which outweighed a marginal drop in sales volume across markets. Additionally, the company is expected to post continued growth in its upcoming full-year 2021 earnings, due early next month.

Now, is Unilever stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 69% chance of a rise in UL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UL Stock Chance of Rise. To learn more about the sources of Unilever’s revenues, see Unilever (UL) Revenues: How Does UL Make Money?

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Twenty-One Day: UL -3.6%, vs. S&P500 -9.3%; Outperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • UL stock lost 3.6% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) tumble of 9.3%
  • A change of -3.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 355 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 355 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 246 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UL -4.9%, vs. S&P500 -7.8%; Outperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • UL stock dropped 4.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 7.8%
  • A change of -4.9% or more over ten trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 140 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 140 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 77 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UL 2.5%, vs. S&P500 -4.1%; Outperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

  • UL stock rose 2.5% over a five-day trading period ending 1/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down over 4%.
  • A change of 2.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 251 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 251 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 130 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 UL Return -5% -5% 26%
 S&P 500 Return -9% -9% 94%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -14% -14% 243%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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