Spurred By Stellar Earnings, Can United Airlines Holdings Stock Extend Its Run?

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UAL: United Airlines Holdings logo
UAL
United Airlines Holdings

United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock (NASDAQ: UAL) is up 34% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing much better than the S&P 500, which was up 5.7% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last week and ten days, too, the stock has returned 14% and 26%, performing much better than the broader markets on both occasions. United Airlines announced Q3 ’22 earnings last week, with revenue at around $12.9 billion, much higher than $7.75 billion in Q3 ’21, aided primarily by a $5 billion jump in passenger revenue. Despite a more than 2x rise in aircraft fuel expense, the company managed to control other operating expenses, and operating income rose from $1.04 billion to $1.46 billion over this period. Aided by a slight drop in the effective tax rate, the firm’s net income jumped and EPS came in at $2.88, much higher than the $1.46 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is UAL stock set to continue its strong outperformance or could we expect a pull back? We believe that there is a meager 13% chance of a rise in UAL stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on UAL Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Return. 

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Twenty-One Day: UAL 34%, vs. S&P500 5.7%; Outperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 13% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • UAL stock jumped 34% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.7%
  • A change of 34% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 30 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 30 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on only 4 occasions
  • This points to a 13% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: UAL 26%, vs. S&P500 7.6%; Outperformed market

(<1% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • UAL stock soared 26% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 7.6%
  • A change of 26% or more over ten trading days is a <1% likelihood event, which has occurred 18 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 18 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 9 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: UAL 14%, vs. S&P500 3.7%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 40% probability of rise over next five days)

  • UAL stock gained 14% over a five-day trading period ending 10/25/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 3.7% over this period.
  • A change of 14% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 65 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 65 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 26 occasions
  • This points to a 40% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 UAL Return 31% -3% -42%
 S&P 500 Return 8% -19% 72%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 6% -22% 209%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/26/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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