TW Stock Surges 17% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Record Earnings & PT Hikes
Tradeweb Markets (TW) – a global electronic marketplace for trading multiple asset classes – hit a 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to 17%. The company’s market cap has surged by about $3.7 Bil over the last 5 days and currently stands at $25 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 8.5% compared to 1.4% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Record Q4 Earnings & January Volume
- Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.87 beat by $0.03, revenue of $521.1M beat by $4.96M
- Record January average daily volume of $3.1 trillion, up 26.2% YoY
- Impact: Stock up 10.26% on Feb 5th, Multiple Analyst Price Target Increases
[2] Positive Analyst Revisions
- JP Morgan raised Price Target to $140, maintaining ‘Overweight’
- Morgan Stanley raised Price Target to $123
- Impact: Reinforced upward momentum, Increased institutional confidence
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in TW stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. Hence, together with its Very High valuation, this makes the stock look Risky (For details, see Buy or Sell TW).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for TW stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | TW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 0.9% | -0.3% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 17.3% | 0.3% |
| 1M (21D) | 12.4% | -0.4% |
| 3M (63D) | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| YTD 2026 | 8.5% | 1.4% |
| 2025 | -17.5% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 44.6% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 40.6% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has TW behaved after prior drops? See TW Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 132 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 16 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 99 | 7 |
| 4D | 12 | 4 |
| 5D | 8 | 1 |
| 6D | 9 | 3 |
| 7D or more | 4 | 1 |
| Total >=3 D | 132 | 16 |
Key Financials for Tradeweb Markets (TW)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.7 Bil | $2.1 Bil |
| Operating Income | $685.8 Mil | $845.1 Mil |
| Net Income | $501.5 Mil | $812.8 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ3 | 2025 FQ4 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $508.6 Mil | $521.2 Mil |
| Operating Income | $210.4 Mil | $230.8 Mil |
| Net Income | $185.6 Mil | $325.0 Mil |
While TW stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.