With Tapestry Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
Tapestry (TPR) stock is up 19.3% in 5 trading days. The rally reflects renewed optimism around its strong Q2 results and robust Coach brand growth, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Tapestry stands today.
- Size: Tapestry is a $32 Bil company with $7.5 Bil in revenue currently trading at $154.65.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 10.9% and operating margin of 20.9%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.12 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.17
- Valuation: Tapestry stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 60.4 and P/EBIT multiple of 43.8
- Has returned (median) 42.7% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See TPR Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell TPR Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is TPR stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose TPR stock falls 20-30% to $108 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- TPR stock fell 46.0% from a high of $49.12 on 7 May 2021 to $26.52 on 11 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 October 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $154.65 on 9 February 2026 $154.65
| TPR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -46.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 898 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- TPR stock fell 64.1% from a high of $29.47 on 12 February 2020 to $10.58 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 November 2020
| TPR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -64.1% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 246 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- TPR stock fell 64.4% from a high of $54.64 on 27 April 2018 to $19.45 on 15 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 November 2024
| TPR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -64.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1,918 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- TPR stock fell 78.2% from a high of $53.79 on 20 April 2007 to $11.73 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 November 2010
| TPR | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -78.2% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 619 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about TPR stock? Consider portfolio approach.
Smart Investing Begins With Portfolios
Individual stocks are unpredictable. A smart portfolio helps you invest, limits downside shocks, and provides upside exposure.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.