Turning Point Brands Stock Tumbled 32% – Opportunity or Trap?
Turning Point Brands (TPB) stock has fallen by 31.5% in less than a month, from $108.41 on 2nd Mar, 2026 to $74.25 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, TPB stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -20%, with median peak return of 13%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -0.6% |
| 3M | -5.3% |
| 6M | 1.2% |
| 12M | -19.6% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TPB had 9 events since 5/11/2016 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 13% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 241 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -27% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TPB Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TPB | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -20% | 13% | -27% | 241 | ||||
| 3052026 | -22% | -1% | -20% | 1% | -20% | 4 | ||
| 4112025 | -20% | -10% | 33% | 156% | 0% | 320 | ||
| 8312022 | -21% | 0% | 7% | 13% | -16% | 342 | ||
| 5092022 | -21% | -12% | -22% | 13% | -27% | 77 | ||
| 10272021 | -22% | 2% | -37% | 10% | -47% | 16 | ||
| 2072020 | -21% | 3% | 161% | 154% | -31% | 364 | ||
| 7252019 | -23% | 5% | -28% | 3% | -64% | 4 | ||
| 11192018 | -25% | -7% | -21% | 67% | -37% | 241 | ||
| 10202016 | -21% | -2% | 43% | 49% | -5% | 362 | ||
1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller
Turning Point Brands Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 28.4% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 13.5% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 12.4% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 4.5 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 9.3 |
Not sure if you can take a call on TPB stock? Consider portfolio approach
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Stocks soar and sink – the key is staying invested. A balanced portfolio helps you ride market volatility, boosts gains, and reduces single stock risk.
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