How Will T-Mobile US Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Consensus estimates point to revenue growth of about 5% year-over-year to $20.63 billion, while earnings are likely to grow by over 20% to $2.46 per share. Growth is likely to be driven by continued strong postpaid phone customer acquisitions, led by its strong 5G network, while earnings will be driven by synergies from the Sprint deal. The carrier is also likely to see more upside from its fixed wireless broadband business.

T-Mobile has $299 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $81 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $18 billion in operating profits and a net income of $11 billion. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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T-Mobile US’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 70% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 14 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -0.3%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on the 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like T-Mobile US, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and clocked >91% returns since inception.

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