The Story Behind TMC Stock’s Roller Coaster Ride
At just $5.42, TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is trading at less than half of its 52-week high of $11.35, a dramatic swing that underscores how much of this stock’s story rests on vision — and how fragile that vision can be.
TMC isn’t a traditional miner. It is a deep-sea exploration company focused on harvesting polymetallic nodules from the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific. These nodules, rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, are essential for electric-vehicle batteries and other clean-technology applications. That gives TMC a potentially massive role in the energy transition — if it can get from exploration to production.
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The company has made headlines for applying for U.S. permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, rather than waiting for international regulations via the International Seabed Authority. In March 2025, TMC announced it would submit license applications to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), accelerating its push for commercial recovery. On top of that, a pre-feasibility study released earlier this year gave the company’s NORI-D project a net present value (NPV) of $5.5 billion. Combined with other resources, the PFS and technical studies suggest a total project value of $23.6 billion. This promise has attracted serious backers. Korea Zinc, one of the world’s largest zinc producers, invested $85.2 million in TMC and took a 5% stake — providing both capital and industry credibility.
Yet, despite all this optimism, TMC’s path is anything but smooth. In Q1 2025, the company reported just $43.8 million in liquidity, including just $2.3 million in cash, and burned $9.3 million in the quarter. Its net loss for that period was $20.6 million. While TMC raised $37 million via a direct offering in May, dilution risk looms thanks to accompanying warrants.
Then there’s the elephant in the room: regulatory and environmental risk. TMC’s strategy to use U.S. law rather than rely on the International Seabed Authority (ISA) is controversial. Critics argue it may breach international norms, and environmentalists warn of deep-sea habitat damage. Many countries and scientist groups have called for a moratorium. If regulators balk or environmental concerns slow things down, the entire business model could be delayed or derailed.
This volatility has shown up in the stock. TMC spiked earlier this year on optimism around its permit applications and resource potential, but more recently, reality check fears have led to a sharp retracement from its highs.
So what’s next for TMC? Its key upcoming catalysts are twofold: regulatory clarity and cash execution. Success in obtaining a commercial recovery permit from NOAA—or another permitting body—would transform the company’s risk profile. Meanwhile, continued capital raises, potentially via partners like Korea Zinc, are crucial to keep the cash runway alive. On the technical side, more detailed feasibility work or a pilot collection project would go a long way in validating long-term economics.
Conversely, failure to win permits or recurring cash shortfalls could send sentiment tumbling again. Given how much of TMC’s valuation is forward-looking, negative surprises could be painful.
In short: TMC is not just a speculative stock — it’s a bet on a frontier mining business that could reshape the supply of critical battery metals. The upside is massive, but so are the risks. For investors who believe in deep-sea nodules and are comfortable with long timelines and environmental/regulatory obstacles, the current dip could be an opportunity. For others, it’s a reminder that in the deep ocean, the waters are still uncharted.
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