How Will TJX Companies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. The company has $162 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $58 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $6.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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TJX Companies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 68% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 3.5%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/20/2025 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.9% |
| 5/21/2025 | -2.9% | -6.5% | -8.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.8% | -0.8% | -2.4% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.2% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| 8/21/2024 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| 5/22/2024 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 13.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | 0.6% | -3.1% | 0.6% |
| 11/15/2023 | -3.3% | -3.7% | -2.8% |
| 8/16/2023 | 4.1% | 3.9% | 9.1% |
| 5/17/2023 | 0.9% | -0.9% | 4.2% |
| 2/22/2023 | -1.7% | -2.8% | -4.7% |
| 11/16/2022 | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| 8/17/2022 | 2.8% | -4.1% | -2.7% |
| 5/18/2022 | 7.1% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| 2/23/2022 | -4.2% | -2.1% | -8.8% |
| 11/17/2021 | 5.8% | 2.1% | 5.7% |
| 8/18/2021 | 5.6% | 8.9% | 1.9% |
| 5/19/2021 | -5.3% | -5.4% | -9.1% |
| 2/24/2021 | -0.5% | -5.7% | -8.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -3.4% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 8.9% | 13.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -6.5% | -9.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 2.0% | 23.6% | -4.9% |
| 3Y History | 13.2% | 42.2% | 11.7% |
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