Now is not the time to buy TJX Companies stock

We believe there is a near-equal mix of good and bad in TJX stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive. Here is our multi-factor assessment.

But no matter how attractive, investing in a single stock carries high risk. Trefis High Quality Portfolio and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $155 Bil in market cap, TJX Companies operates multiple retail segments with over 3,300 stores across the U.S., Canada, and internationally, offering discounted apparel, home goods, and more since 1962.

[1] Valuation Looks High

This table highlights how TJX is valued vs broader market. For more details see: TJX Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Weak

• TJX Companies has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 4.6% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 3.8% from $55 Bil to $57 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 5.1% to $13 Bil in the most recent quarter from $12 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how TJX is growing vs broader market. For more details see: TJX Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Moderate

• TJX last 12 month operating income was $6.3 Bil representing operating margin of 11.0%
• With cash flow margin of 10.1%, it generated nearly $5.8 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, TJX generated nearly $4.8 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 8.5%

This table highlights how TJX profitability vs broader market. For more details see: TJX Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong

• TJX Debt was $13 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $155 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 8.5%
• TJX Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $4.3 Bil of $32 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 13.4%

[4] Downturn Resilience Is Moderate

TJX saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• TJX stock fell 28.3% from a high of $76.72 on 4 January 2022 to $54.99 on 11 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 November 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $138.27 on 20 August 2025 $138.27

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• TJX stock fell 42.6% from a high of $63.99 on 26 February 2020 to $36.76 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 November 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• TJX stock fell 50.2% from a high of $9.25 on 11 August 2008 to $4.61 on 19 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 27 August 2009

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read TJX Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.