Target vs Dollar General: Which Stock Could Rally?
Target surged 10% during the past Week. You may be tempted to buy more, or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer Dollar General gives you more. Dollar General (DG) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Target (TGT) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in DG
- DG’s Last 12 Months revenue growth was 4.7%, vs. TGT’s 0.5%.
- In addition, its Last 3-Year Average revenue growth came in at 3.9%, ahead of TGT’s -0.9%.
- DG’s LTM margin is higher: 5.3% vs. TGT’s 4.5%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how TGT’s fundamentals stack up against those of DG on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| TGT | DG | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 12.8 | 11.2 | DG |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 6.7% | 3.4% | TGT |
| Last 12 Months | 0.5% | 4.7% | DG |
| Last 3 Year Average | -0.9% | 3.9% | DG |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 4.5% | 5.3% | DG |
| Last 3 Year Average | 5.1% | 5.1% | TGT |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 19.4% | -20.6% | TGT |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell DG Stock and Buy or Sell TGT Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| TGT Return | 33% | -34% | -1% | -2% | -24% | 38% | -11% | ||
| DG Return | 13% | 6% | -44% | -43% | 80% | -13% | -41% | ||
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% | <=== | |
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| TGT Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 83% | 56% | ||
| DG Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 47% | ||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | 62% | <=== | |
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| TGT Max Drawdown | -18% | -44% | -41% | -30% | -39% | -10% | -30% | ||
| DG Max Drawdown | -18% | -28% | -59% | -54% | -17% | -35% | -35% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | -13% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/12/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read DG Dip Buyer Analyses and TGT Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about TGT or DG? Consider portfolio approach.
Portfolios Over Individual Stock Picks
Individual stocks are unpredictable. A smart portfolio helps you invest, limits downside shocks, and provides upside exposure.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? HQ Portfolio has posted more than 105% in cumulative return since inception, with less risk versus the benchmark index, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.