Time To Buy The Dip In Atlassian Stock?
Atlassian (TEAM) stock has fallen by 13.4% in less than a month, from $94.72 on 6th Feb, 2026 to $82.04 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, TEAM stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -21%, with median peak return of 28%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 3.5% |
| 3M | -6.6% |
| 6M | -15.1% |
| 12M | -20.9% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
TEAM had 12 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 28% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 67.5 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -45% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | TEAM Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | TEAM | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -21% | 28% | -45% | 68 | ||||
| 1162026 | -24% | 1% | -31% | 17% | -42% | 10 | ||
| 8112025 | -21% | 3% | -48% | 14% | -57% | 29 | ||
| 3132025 | -23% | -8% | -61% | 14% | -67% | 12 | ||
| 8122024 | -21% | -2% | 19% | 130% | 0% | 182 | ||
| 6052024 | -21% | 6% | 36% | 105% | -13% | 250 | ||
| 3052024 | -20% | 5% | 22% | 64% | -30% | 342 | ||
| 9222022 | -23% | -11% | -11% | 10% | -47% | 13 | ||
| 5022022 | -20% | -7% | -38% | 23% | -51% | 106 | ||
| 3142022 | -25% | -6% | -34% | 33% | -51% | 21 | ||
| 12142021 | -22% | 1% | -57% | 12% | -67% | 13 | ||
| 10242018 | -25% | -8% | 70% | 119% | 0% | 293 | ||
| 1282016 | -22% | -6% | 36% | 57% | -12% | 190 | ||
Atlassian Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 20.1% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 21.9% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 23.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -2.6 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 42.2 |
Not sure if you can take a call on TEAM stock? Consider portfolio approach
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