AT&T stock (NYSE:T) has fared pretty well over the last month (about 21 trading days), rising by about 13% compared to the S&P 500 which gained about 3% over the same period. The carrier published a better-than-expected set of Q3 2022 results, with revenue coming in at $30 billion and adjusted EPS standing at $0.68. Although revenue fell year-over-year, due to the divestment of the U.S. Video and Vrio businesses, the core wireless business has been gaining traction driven by improving 5G coverage and promotional activity. AT&T added a net of 708,000 postpaid phone subscribers over the quarter, compared to rival Verizon which lost 189,000 wireless postpaid phone subscribers in its consumer division. Investors are also likely seeing better value in AT&T stock, which currently trades at about 7x consensus 2023 earnings, well below historical levels.
However, now that AT&T stock has seen a rise of about 13% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is only a 6% chance of a rise in T stock over the next month. Out of 16 instances in the last ten years that T stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 13% or more, 1 of them resulted in the stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 1 out of 16, or about a 6% chance of a rise in T stock over the coming month, implying that the stock may not be a great bet for the near term. See our analysis of AT&T Chance of Rise for more details.
|S&P 500 Return||6%||-20%||70%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||2%||-25%||197%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/25/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016