How Will Constellation Brands Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, January 7, 2026. The company has $25 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $9.6 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.2 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Constellation Brands’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 1.4%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.4%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/6/2025 | 1.0% | 2.0% | -6.1% |
| 7/1/2025 | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/9/2025 | 0.7% | -0.2% | 4.2% |
| 1/10/2025 | -17.1% | -15.8% | -24.3% |
| 10/3/2024 | -4.7% | -6.0% | -9.1% |
| 7/3/2024 | -3.3% | -2.3% | -5.2% |
| 4/11/2024 | 1.3% | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| 1/5/2024 | 2.1% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| 10/5/2023 | -3.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 6/30/2023 | -0.3% | 2.7% | 10.5% |
| 4/6/2023 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| 1/5/2023 | -9.7% | -3.7% | -0.1% |
| 10/6/2022 | -1.5% | -5.4% | 2.7% |
| 6/30/2022 | -4.3% | -0.8% | 1.1% |
| 4/7/2022 | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| 1/6/2022 | -3.4% | -2.1% | -6.3% |
| 10/6/2021 | -0.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% |
| 6/30/2021 | 1.3% | -1.7% | -2.8% |
| 4/8/2021 | -4.6% | -2.6% | 3.2% |
| 1/7/2021 | 2.3% | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -2.7% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.6% | 7.3% | 10.5% |
| Max Negative | -17.1% | -15.8% | -24.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -23.4% | 7.0% | 21.4% |
| 3Y History | -0.8% | 52.0% | 40.1% |
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