How Will State Street Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
State Street (NYSE:STT) is set to report its earnings on Friday, January 16, 2026. The company has $38 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $14 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.8 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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State Street’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -7.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/17/2025 | -1.4% | 1.5% | 3.4% |
| 7/15/2025 | -7.3% | -1.8% | 1.3% |
| 4/17/2025 | 2.0% | 10.0% | 23.4% |
| 1/17/2025 | -2.8% | -1.4% | -0.0% |
| 10/15/2024 | 1.0% | -0.8% | 4.7% |
| 7/16/2024 | 7.4% | 6.4% | -0.2% |
| 4/12/2024 | 2.5% | -1.2% | 3.6% |
| 1/19/2024 | 2.1% | 0.5% | -2.4% |
| 10/18/2023 | 2.0% | -3.7% | 3.7% |
| 7/14/2023 | -12.1% | -9.2% | -4.9% |
| 4/17/2023 | -9.2% | -8.0% | -15.0% |
| 1/20/2023 | 4.7% | 12.1% | 14.3% |
| 10/18/2022 | 1.0% | 10.5% | 24.5% |
| 7/15/2022 | 9.7% | 13.3% | 25.2% |
| 4/14/2022 | -8.5% | -10.0% | -16.5% |
| 1/19/2022 | -7.1% | -6.8% | -0.7% |
| 10/18/2021 | 2.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% |
| 7/16/2021 | 2.9% | 3.6% | 10.8% |
| 4/16/2021 | -7.0% | -9.0% | 0.3% |
| 1/19/2021 | 1.6% | -6.0% | -2.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.2% | -6.0% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 9.7% | 13.3% | 25.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.1% | -10.0% | -16.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 3.0% | 22.3% | 32.5% |
| 3Y History | -27.4% | -3.5% | 23.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of State Street stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before State Street. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| STT Earnings Dates | STT | BK | JPM |
| 10/17/2025 | -1.4% | -0.7% | -1.5% |
| 4/17/2025 | 2.0% | -1.7% | -1.8% |
| 1/17/2025 | -2.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% |
| 10/15/2024 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 7/16/2024 | 7.4% | 0.5% | 4.2% |
| 1/19/2024 | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 10/18/2023 | 2.0% | -0.7% | -1.4% |
| 4/17/2023 | -9.2% | N/A* | 0.8% |
| 1/20/2023 | 4.7% | 1.2% | -5.5% |
| 10/18/2022 | 1.0% | -1.0% | 6.9% |
| 7/15/2022 | 9.7% | N/A* | 4.6% |
| 4/14/2022 | -8.5% | N/A* | -0.9% |
| 1/19/2022 | -7.1% | -5.8% | -5.7% |
| 10/18/2021 | 2.2% | N/A* | 3.4% |
| 7/16/2021 | 2.9% | 1.4% | -2.4% |
| 4/16/2021 | -7.0% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| CORRELATION | 49.6% | 11.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after STT
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