What To Expect From State Street Stock?

+19.40%
Upside
71.60
Market
85.49
Trefis
STT: State Street logo
STT
State Street

State Street stock (NYSE: STT) has gained 4.8% in the last week, edging ahead of the 4.2% gain in the S&P 500. However, STT stock slipped 3.8% as compared to the 0.1% rise in the broader markets over the past one month. This implies that while the stock has underperformed the S&P500 over the one month, it has seen some recovery over the last five trading days. 

The firm is trying to make its products more competitive and increase its market share. It recently announced it will reduce the expense ratio on three corporate bond exchange-traded funds to boost its market share of the fixed-income ETF business. This is likely to boost the fund inflows, positively affecting the State Street revenues. This was the main reason behind the stock rise over the last week.

Now, is STT stock set to rise further, or could we expect some decline? We believe that there is a 64% chance of a rise in State Street stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on State Street Stock Chance of Rise

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Twenty-One Day: STT -3.8%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Underperformed market

(22% likelihood event; 64% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • State Street stock lost 3.8% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a marginal increase of 0.1% in the broader market (S&P500)
  • A change of -3.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 542 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 542 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 346 occasions
  • This points to a 64% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: STT -5.4%, vs. S&P500 0.3%; Underperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • State Street stock decreased 5.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.3%
  • A change of -5.4% or more over ten trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 352 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 352 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 196 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: STT 4.8%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

  • State Street stock gained 4.8% over a five-day trading period ending 12/08/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 4.2%
  • A change of 4.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 232 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 232 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 134 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 STT Return -4% 28% 20%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 25% 110%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% 47% 295%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/9/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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