Sterling Infrastructure Stock Tumbled 21% – Opportunity or Trap?
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stock has fallen by 20.5% in less than a month, from $411.07 on 5th Nov, 2025 to $326.60 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, STRL stock passes basic quality checks. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 34% , with median peak return reaching 79%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Nevertheless, when markets turn, single-asset exposure hurts. Smart financial advisors protect client wealth by working with partners who allocate across multiple asset classes – including the High Quality Portfolio.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 2.8% |
| 3M | 25.3% |
| 6M | 32.1% |
| 12M | 34.4% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
STRL had 6 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 79% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 238 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -30% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | STRL Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | STRL | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 34% | 79% | -30% | 238 | ||||
| 2202025 | -30% | 3% | 206% | 231% | -16% | 258 | ||
| 3122020 | -33% | -24% | 156% | 167% | -20% | 313 | ||
| 5122015 | -30% | 1% | 48% | 96% | 0% | 219 | ||
| 1272015 | -37% | -0% | 21% | 61% | -39% | 324 | ||
| 12122014 | -33% | 1% | 4% | 12% | -59% | 14 | ||
| 4172014 | -30% | -1% | -38% | 45% | -65% | 77 | ||
Sterling Infrastructure Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 6.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 13.1% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 19.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 23.2 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 15.2 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.