What Have Steel Dynamics Stock Holders Had To Sit Through?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
$10,000 put into Steel Dynamics (STLD) stock in October 2016 was worth $84,816 by November 9, 2026, before dividends. The same money in the S&P 500 grew to $35,506, also before dividends. In hindsight, owning the steelmaker looks easy, but staying in was another matter. How many times do you think the stock fell 20% or more along the way?
How Often Did Steel Dynamics Stock Fall?
Over those ten years, Steel Dynamics stock fell 20% or more from a closing high eight times. Three of those drops exceeded 30%, and every instance is listed below.
| High | Low | Steel Dynamics stock | S&P 500, same dates | Back above the old high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2018 | Mar 2020 | -69.8% | -11.8% | Apr 2021 |
| Aug 2021 | Jan 2022 | -28.3% | -1.6% | Mar 2022 |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | -30.9% | -12.5% | Oct 2022 |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | -32.5% | 3.3% | Mar 2024 |
| Apr 2024 | Sep 2024 | -27.6% | 5.9% | Nov 2024 |
| Nov 2024 | Apr 2025 | -29.2% | -14.4% | Oct 2025 |
| Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | -20.3% | -6.3% | Apr 2026 |
| Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | -22.5% | 2.8% | Not as of Nov 2026 |
Falls of 20% or more from a closing high, Oct 2016 to Nov 2026. Split-adjusted closing prices, dividends excluded.
The deepest decline ran from May 2018 to March 2020, with the stock losing 69.8% while the S&P 500 fell 11.8% over the same dates. Investors who held shares from that peak spent 34.6 months below it, or nearly three years, before the stock closed above that mark in April 2021.
How Did Holding Steel Dynamics Through A Fall Feel?
Take the fall that began in November 2024. The stock slid for 4.9 months, until holders were down 29.2% in April 2025. It then took another 6.8 months, to late October 2025, before the shares closed above that November high again. For almost a year, anyone who bought at that November high was looking at a loss, with nothing to tell them it would end.
Was Something Wrong With Steel Dynamics’ Business?
Steel Dynamics mostly sells steel. Its Steel Operations brought in $13.4 billion in fiscal 2025, compared to total company revenue of $18.2 billion. The firm also runs Metals Recycling Operations and an aluminum business.
The business held up during the deepest drop. Twelve-month sales at the March 2020 low were 7.1% higher than at the May 2018 high. The operating margin slipped only slightly, falling from 11.7% to 10.2%. The stock can fall that far even while sales rise, and that is the risk of holding it.
The November 2024 fall was different. Twelve-month sales were 3.8% lower by the April 2025 low, and the operating margin dropped from 13.5% to 9.2%. That time, the business weakened too.
What Selling Steel Dynamics Stock Would Have Cost
Steel Dynamics stock is up 1,368% since its March 2020 low, and anyone who sold there missed all of it. Today the stock sits 19.5% below its June 2026 high. Shareholders are once again waiting for the price to climb back to an old high.
Seven of the eight falls ended with the stock back above its old high, but nobody in the middle of one knew it would. The falls were not a flaw in a winning stock; sitting through them was what owning the gain took. So in this fall and any later one, the figure that shows whether the business is weakening with it is Steel Dynamics’ twelve-month sales, starting with the report expected in January 2027.
Beyond STLD: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on STLD, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.