Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Crypto: Market Update 10/16/2025

October 17th, 2025 by Trefis Team
SPY: S&P 500 logo
SPY
S&P 500

Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.

  • Equity declined 0.7% yesterday, versus -1.6% weekly and 0.2% monthly moves.
  • Bonds increased 0.4% yesterday, continuing weekly and monthly gains.
  • Gold gained 2.3% yesterday, also rising over the week and month.
  • Commodities fell 0.2% yesterday, extending declines for the week and month.
  • Real Estate dropped 0.4% yesterday, adding to a 1.5% weekly rise and -1.6% monthly fall.
  • Bitcoin rose 0.3% yesterday, after -8.7% weekly and -4.6% monthly declines.

 

ETF 1D 1W 1M
Equity SPY -0.7% -1.6% 0.2%
Bonds AGG 0.4% 1.1% 0.5%
Gold GLD 2.3% 8.5% 17.7%
Commodities DBC -0.2% -1.8% -1.8%
Real Estate VNQ -0.4% 1.5% -1.6%
Bitcoin BTCUSD 0.3% -8.7% -4.6%

Why does it matter?

 

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  • See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
  • Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
  • Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.

Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile

ETF Return Volatility Sharpe
Equity SPY 14.5% 15.2% 81.8%
Bonds AGG 1.9% 5.1% -11.4%
Gold GLD 13.8% 14.7% 77.3%
Commodities DBC 4.4% 16.2% 16.4%
Real Estate VNQ 5.4% 17.6% 24.5%
Bitcoin BTCUSD 84.6% 79.2% 114.3%

Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years

How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?

Equity Bonds Gold Commodities Real Estate Bitcoin
Equity – 11% | 19% | 9.6% 4.9% | 12% | 2.6% 34% | 24% | 30% 73% | 70% | 63% 25% | 37% | 40%
Bonds 11% | 19% | 9.6% – 35% | 35% | 17% -0.2% | -2.6% | -8.2% 28% | 36% | 43% 10% | 7.3% | -4.9%
Gold 4.9% | 12% | 2.6% 35% | 35% | 17% – 26% | 33% | 35% 13% | 19% | 15% 9.9% | 7.9% | 1.3%
Commodities 34% | 24% | 30% -0.2% | -2.6% | -8.2% 26% | 33% | 35% – 23% | 16% | 16% 9.9% | 12% | 12%
Real Estate 73% | 70% | 63% 28% | 36% | 43% 13% | 19% | 15% 23% | 16% | 16% – 17% | 24% | 19%
Bitcoin 25% | 37% | 40% 10% | 7.3% | -4.9% 9.9% | 7.9% | 1.3% 9.9% | 12% | 12% 17% | 24% | 19% –

The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order

Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?

ETF Inflation Shock Covid Pandemic 2018 Correction
Equity SPY -23.0% -30.4% -19.3%
Bonds AGG -14.1% -2.1% 1.4%
Gold GLD -7.7% -6.3% 5.0%
Commodities DBC 20.5% -23.7% -16.5%
Real Estate VNQ -29.8% -41.6% -11.1%
Bitcoin BTCUSD -56.0% -33.5% -37.4%

The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.