What Did Snowflake Stock Investors Miss Before The Run?

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Snowflake (SNOW) stock returned 140.7% from April 29 to October 28, 2026, more than doubling a holder’s money in six months. On its September 2 call, management said sales growth had sped up for a third straight quarter, with new AI products supplying about half of the speed-up. Over the six months before April 29, however, the shares had lost 47.6%. What had management been saying before then?

Snowflake Twice Told Investors Business Was Strong

Management held both calls before that decline began. The upbeat remarks came first, and the drop followed. On the November 20, 2024 call, management said growth in the core business had “outperformed.” The company also said the backlog of signed contracts not yet booked as sales had grown 55% from a year earlier, and that this growth was accelerating. Because this backlog turns into sales later, a reader could have taken the metric as demand running ahead of the reported figures.

On the August 27, 2025 call, management said the core business remained very strong. Net revenue retention, which tracks what existing customers spend compared with a year earlier, was 125%, against 127% on the 2024 call. The commentary was upbeat, but retention had slipped slightly between the two calls.

Snowflake’s Growth Picked Up Again Before April

Snowflake’s AI work showed up next, though only in product launches. On December 18, 2025, Equilar’s ExecAtlas was named a launch partner for Snowflake Intelligence, the company’s enterprise intelligence agent. That announcement showed what Snowflake was building, not what it was selling.

The first sign in the figures followed. In the quarter ended January 31, 2026, filed on March 20, revenue grew 30.1% from a year earlier. This compared with 28.7% in the quarter ended October 2025. A single quarter was hard to read as a turn, because growth had been 31.8% in the quarter ended July 2025. Management had already reported that quarter on its February 25 call, nearly a month before the filing, so the sign was there to catch then, though it was not yet a pattern.

The six months that followed established that pattern. The S&P 500 gained 9.1% over the run from April 29. Among three large peers, Microsoft performed best with 25.6%, while Amazon lost 3.2% and Alphabet lost 7.0%, so the run belonged to Snowflake rather than to its group. Snowflake’s revenue growth revenue growth rose again in each of the next two quarters, reaching 35.1% in the quarter ended July 31, 2026. That is a figure for the whole company, not a single product line. The run’s two biggest one-day gains, 36.5% on May 28 and 16.6% on September 3, each came the day after a quarterly report.

Is Snowflake’s Growth Still Speeding Up?

Not by much, according to management’s own forecast. Product revenue made up 95.5% of sales in fiscal 2026, and management guided its growth to 37% to 38% for the quarter ending October 2026, compared with 37% in the July quarter. This forecast points to growth holding near its new pace, not to another clear step up.

The earliest sign has cooled. On the September call, the backlog of signed contracts grew 30% from a year earlier, compared with the 55% management cited in November 2024. In between, on its February 2026 call, held during the decline, management had cited backlog growth of 42%. Net revenue retention was 126%, landing about where it stood a year earlier. Management also said customers favor fourth-quarter renewals, so bookings will lean toward that quarter.

When Snowflake reports in December 2026, product revenue growth compared with management’s guidance for the October quarter will be the figure to watch.

Separately, see our take on How Tesla Blundered.

Does This Mean You Should Act On SNOW?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.

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