After A 27% Slide, Is SFM Stock Worth A Look?
Sprouts Farmers Market stock has fallen by 27.0% in less than a month, from $139.36 on 9/8/2025 to $101.76 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Sprouts Farmers Market passes basic quality checks and has returned (median) 28% in one year, and 33% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, SFM provides fresh produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral, dairy, and dairy alternatives across 374 stores in 23 states.
Price behaviour is one thing, but what do the fundamentals say? Read Buy or Sell SFM Stock to see the full picture.
SFM stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it attractive. While this may feel like an opportunity, there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. On the other hand, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach we take with Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Separately, consider what could long-term performance for your portfolio be if you combined 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with equities.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 6.8% |
| 3M | 18.4% |
| 6M | 21.2% |
| 12M | 28.5% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
SFM had 2 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
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- 33% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 174 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- 0% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | SFM Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | SFM | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 28% | 33% | 0% | 174 | ||||
| 10022025 | -30% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1 | ||
| 5192022 | -30% | -13% | 56% | 65% | 0% | 348 | ||
Sprouts Farmers Market Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 16.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 10.5% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 8.9% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 414.2 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 169.1 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.