What Is Next For McDonald’s Stock?
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McDonald’s (MCD) stock returned 19.6% in the month to November 9, 2026, while the S&P 500 lost 3.3%. The company’s clearest opportunity from here is in its home market, where comparable sales slipped in the latest quarter while its international markets grew. On its November 4 earnings call, management set out a plan for the U.S. and a timeline for it. So what is McDonald’s planning for its U.S. restaurants?
McDonald’s Is Testing New U.S. Value Menus
McDonald’s began an eight-week test of two new everyday value menus in late October, offering meal bundles across about 1,900 U.S. restaurants. Franchisees operating about 4,000 more restaurants chose to offer similar bundles before the test results are in. Management noted on the November 4 call that these participating restaurants collectively make up more than 40% of the U.S. system. Management’s goal is to launch a new program nationally in early 2027.
Existing McDonald’s value offers show early signs of bringing customers back. U.S. comparable sales turned positive in September following slightly negative results in July and August, and management credited steps that included restoring some digital offers and directing marketing toward value meals. Unit sales of the top Extra Value Meals are up about 7% from a year earlier since their relaunch, management said. The new menus have no results yet, however: management said it was premature to share any after one week.
How Big Is McDonald’s U.S. Business?
The U.S. brought in $10.8 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, representing 40.3% of the company’s total. That revenue grew 1.8% in the year, compared with 8.0% for the International Operated Markets, McDonald’s largest segment. On that fiscal 2025 base, each extra percentage point of U.S. growth adds only about $0.11 billion a year, meaning a better value menu would be an incremental gain for a company of this size.
Even after the past month’s rise, McDonald’s shares lost 3.3% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 13.7%. They closed 15.9% below their high for that year, set on February 27, 2026. At 22.1 times its past twelve months’ earnings, against 21.8 for the S&P 500, McDonald’s trades at about the market’s multiple.
Can McDonald’s Value Menus Pay Off For Franchisees?
That is not known yet. Management said it will use the test results to pick the menu that delivers lasting extra traffic and sales for franchisees. Analysts raised two concerns on the November 4 call: franchisee alignment and McDonald’s marketing. Management agreed that its marketing has not been at the standard it sets for itself. Earlier on the call, management had said the restaurants in the test and those offering similar bundles show strong alignment around the opportunity.
Rising costs present another risk. Management expects mid-single-digit food and paper inflation in 2027, placing it above the company’s long-term historical trend. This inflation is expected in the same year the new menus are due nationally. That may squeeze what franchisees earn on affordable bundles.
The new U.S. value menu remains McDonald’s clearest opportunity, even if the gain would be incremental for a company of this size. U.S. comparable sales, which fell 0.2% in the third quarter, are the figure to watch when McDonald’s reports its fourth quarter in February 2027.
Does This Mean You Should Act On MCD?
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