Why Southern Copper Stock Jumped 130%?
Over 12 months, Southern Copper (SCCO) surged 129%, fueled by soaring revenues and margins amid record metal prices and robust production. Yet, after Q4, optimism cooled as guidance signaled a dip in 2026 output, sparking a notable pullback that hints at challenges ahead.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 2232025 | 2232026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.4 | 207.1 | 129.0% |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,944.6 | 12,334.6 | 12.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.7% | 31.0% | 12.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.8 | 44.6 | 87.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 798.6 | 822.7 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 129.0% |
So what is happening here? The stock surged 129%, driven by a 13% revenue boost and a 12% rise in net income margin. A sharp 87% jump in the P/E multiple also pushed shares higher ahead of key developments.
Here Is Why Southern Copper Stock Moved
- By-Product Margin Driver: Surging by-product volumes, with 2025 mined zinc up 36% and silver up 15%, slashed Q3 net cash costs to a record low of $0.42/lb, boosting margins.
- Favorable Price Realization: Record full-year 2025 net income of $4.3B (+28% YoY) was driven by higher metal prices, including a 21% YoY increase in LME copper prices in Q4.
- Record Financial Results: Full-year 2025 net sales hit a record $13.4 billion, a 17.4% increase, demonstrating strong operating leverage in a favorable commodity price environment.
- Growth Project De-Risking: Progress on the Tía María project, reaching 24% completion by year-end 2025, provides a clearer path to a future supply of 120,000 tons/year.
- Shift in 2026 Outlook: The stock’s strong upward trajectory reversed after the Q4 2025 report, which guided for a 4.7% decline in 2026 copper production due to lower ore grades.
Current Assesment Of SCCO Stock
The core investment debate is centered around: Can a structural copper deficit and rising prices offset a confirmed, company-specific decline in 2026 production volume due to deteriorating ore grades?
The prevailing sentiment appears to be bearish. The confirmed FY26 production decline is a tangible headwind the market is not ignoring. This operational issue is amplified by rising global copper inventories, threatening the very price appreciation the bull case relies on.
| Bull View | Bear View |
|---|---|
| Bulls bet soaring copper prices will provide enough margin expansion to make the 4.7% production decline irrelevant, driving significant EPS beats. | Bears see the production decline and rising inventories as a dual threat, believing the speculative valuation cannot withstand a simultaneous drop in volume and copper prices. |
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