How Will SBA Communications Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC) is set to report its earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025. The company has $21 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.7 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $879 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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SBA Communications’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.0%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -4.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2025 | -4.9% | -4.9% | -13.1% |
| 2/24/2025 | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| 10/28/2024 | -3.4% | -4.7% | -5.1% |
| 7/29/2024 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 5.4% |
| 2/26/2024 | -3.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.5% | 0.5% | 14.9% |
| 7/31/2023 | 4.2% | 0.5% | 4.3% |
| 2/21/2023 | -5.1% | -4.9% | -9.4% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.2% | 2.7% | 11.2% |
| 8/1/2022 | 1.6% | 3.6% | -2.3% |
| 2/28/2022 | 4.4% | 9.4% | 12.6% |
| 11/1/2021 | 3.1% | 0.2% | -2.2% |
| 8/2/2021 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.0% |
| 2/22/2021 | -4.2% | -4.5% | 5.8% |
| 11/2/2020 | -0.9% | 1.3% | -2.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 1.5% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -4.8% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 4.5% | 9.4% | 14.9% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -4.9% | -13.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -20.0% | 27.4% | 27.8% |
| 3Y History | -38.8% | 43.5% | 58.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of SBA Communications stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before SBA Communications. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBAC Earnings Dates | SBAC | PLD | AMT | CCI |
| 8/4/2025 | -4.9% | -4.5% | -0.8% | -2.3% |
| 10/28/2024 | -3.4% | -7.2% | N/A* | -5.7% |
| 7/29/2024 | 0.1% | 0.6% | N/A* | 2.4% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.5% | -3.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% |
| 7/31/2023 | 4.2% | 0.6% | -1.5% | -4.6% |
| 2/21/2023 | -5.1% | N/A* | N/A* | -6.1% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.2% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| 8/1/2022 | 1.6% | 9.9% | -0.1% | 5.5% |
| 2/28/2022 | 4.4% | N/A* | -2.1% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2021 | 3.1% | 5.7% | -1.4% | 3.7% |
| 8/2/2021 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | -4.0% |
| 2/22/2021 | -4.2% | -1.3% | N/A* | 3.4% |
| CORRELATION | -38.3% | 72.1% | -45.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after SBAC
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