Sunrun Stock Looks Poised For A Comeback

by Trefis Team
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Sunrun stock (NASDAQ: RUN) is down more than 20% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was roughly unchanged over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned-4.8% and -18%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. Sunrun reported strong Q3 ’21 earnings in early November with revenue at $439 million, up significantly from $210 million in Q3 ’20, driven both by a strong rise in customer agreements (by $117 million) and solar energy systems and product sales (by $111 million). However, a higher rise in COGS and operating expenses, saw loss from operations more than double to $138 million over this period.

Now, is Sunrun stock set to continue its downward slump or could we expect a recovery? We believe that there is a very strong 78% chance of a rise in Sunrun stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last six years. See our analysis on RUN Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about RUN historical returns and comparison to peers, see Sunrun (RUN) Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: RUN -22%, vs. S&P500 -0.05%; Underperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 78% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • RUN stock dropped 22% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.05%
  • A change of -22% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 124 times out of 1575 in the last six years
  • Of these 124 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 97 occasions
  • This points to a 78% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: RUN -18%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Underperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • RUN stock dropped 18% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.2%
  • A change of -18% or more over ten trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 111 times out of 1586 in the last six years
  • Of these 111 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 61 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: RUN -4.8%, vs. S&P500 2.8%; Underperformed market

(24% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

  • RUN stock dropped 4.8% over a five-day trading period ending 12/7/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.8%
  • A change of -4.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 24% likelihood event, which has occurred 374 times out of 1591 in the last six years
  • Of these 374 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 188 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 RUN Return -22% -37% 725%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 25% 110%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% 45% 290%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/7/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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