How Will Ross Stores Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The company has $68 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $23 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.1 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Ross Stores’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 82% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.0%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/3/2026 | 8.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| 11/20/2025 | 8.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| 8/21/2025 | 1.1% | 2.4% | -0.4% |
| 5/22/2025 | -9.8% | -8.0% | -15.5% |
| 3/4/2025 | 2.0% | -5.4% | -2.3% |
| 11/21/2024 | 2.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| 8/22/2024 | 1.8% | -0.5% | -1.4% |
| 5/23/2024 | 7.8% | 6.0% | 12.9% |
| 3/5/2024 | -0.7% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
| 11/16/2023 | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.7% |
| 8/17/2023 | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| 5/18/2023 | -0.6% | -2.9% | 2.1% |
| 2/28/2023 | 0.1% | -0.6% | -7.0% |
| 11/17/2022 | 9.9% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| 8/18/2022 | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
| 5/19/2022 | -22.5% | -6.2% | -18.7% |
| 3/1/2022 | 6.1% | -4.1% | 3.8% |
| 11/18/2021 | -5.6% | -8.0% | -11.2% |
| 8/19/2021 | -2.7% | -5.8% | -10.4% |
| 5/20/2021 | 0.6% | 2.6% | -2.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 7 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 9.9% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -22.5% | -8.0% | -18.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -50.8% | 39.4% | 18.4% |
| 3Y History | -10.9% | 82.3% | 33.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ross Stores stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ross Stores. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| ROST Earnings Dates | ROST | DDS |
| 3/3/2026 | 8.0% | 2.7% |
| 11/20/2025 | 8.4% | -10.2% |
| 8/21/2025 | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | -9.8% | 3.0% |
| 3/4/2025 | 2.0% | -19.3% |
| 11/21/2024 | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| 8/22/2024 | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| 5/23/2024 | 7.8% | 2.0% |
| 3/5/2024 | -0.7% | -6.2% |
| 11/16/2023 | 7.2% | 7.8% |
| 8/17/2023 | 5.0% | -9.7% |
| 5/18/2023 | -0.6% | 3.4% |
| 2/28/2023 | 0.1% | 5.8% |
| 11/17/2022 | 9.9% | 13.4% |
| 8/18/2022 | -1.1% | 12.7% |
| 5/19/2022 | -22.5% | -12.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| 11/18/2021 | -5.6% | 12.2% |
| 8/19/2021 | -2.7% | -1.4% |
| CORRELATION | -30.1% |
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