Ralph Lauren’s stock (NYSE: RL), a company engaged in the design, marketing, and distribution of premium lifestyle products, including apparel, accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings, has declined by 14% over the last ten trading days (two weeks) and currently stands at around $106. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned only a 5% decline over the last five days. The apparel retail stocks fell amid renewed concerns over the supply chain in China and the impact of higher interest rates. China’s epicenter Shanghai is seeing a dramatic spike in Covid cases which has led to a return of the lockdown in that area. That said, this could lead to inventory problems for companies such as RL, as the supply chain will be impacted at the factory level, as well as with trucking and shipping of products.
It should be noted that Ralph Lauren does not own or operate any manufacturing facilities and depends exclusively on independent third parties for the manufacture of its products. Almost 97% of its products were produced outside of the U.S. in fiscal 2021, primarily in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, with approximately 20% sourced from China and another 20% from Vietnam.
Now, is RL stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in RL stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on RL’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data
 Returns of -4.3% or lower over a five-day period on 379 occasions out of 2516 (15%); Stock rose in the next five days in 198 of these 379 instances (52%)
 Returns of -14% or lower over a ten-day period on 72 occasions out of 2516 (3%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 40 of these 72 instances (56%)
 Returns of -1.6% or lower over a twenty-one-day period on 985 occasions out of 2516 (39%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 534 of these 985 instances (54%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. RL Peers shows how Ralph Lauren’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
|S&P 500 Return||-3%||-8%||96%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-2%||-9%||257%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/13/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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