Should I Buy Rocket Lab Stock Now?
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Should you buy Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock now? The answer depends largely on Neutron, the company’s larger new rocket. Management moved its first launch to 2027 after voids were found in a propellant tank’s forward dome. The worry is easy to see. The stock lost 46.7% between May 13 and November 11, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 2.9%. Before Neutron flies, what is already settled about Rocket Lab’s business?
What Rocket Lab’s Business Has Already Shown
Rocket Lab has already demonstrated it can grow fast without Neutron. Revenue reached $268 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, climbing 72.7% from a year earlier. Management called it the sixth record quarter in a row. Over the last three twelve-month periods, revenue expanded by an average of 55.1% a year, compared with 6.5% for the S&P 500.
Space Systems, the satellite business, generates most of that revenue and brought in $214.8 million in the quarter. Orders are accumulating even faster than sales. Management said total backlog stood at about $3.6 billion at the end of the quarter, up from about $2.4 billion three months earlier. The company expects about 32.9% of the backlog to become revenue within the next 12 months.
When Will Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Fly?
Management has not named a month in 2027, saying on the November 9 call that the company needs to get through the Stage 1 tank first. Customers are booking the rocket anyway. Rocket Lab signed 8 Neutron missions for roughly $515 million in the third quarter, selling several at a higher base price of $70 million per launch. Neutron’s first 16 launches are now booked.
The launch date matters for profit. Rocket Lab recorded a $244 million operating loss over the twelve months to September 30, 2026. Management gave two different timelines on the call. It said its adjusted EBITDA, an earnings measure the company sets itself, will turn positive within 6 months of Neutron’s first successful test flight, with cash flow following later. Earlier on the same call, management also tied the adjusted EBITDA turn to 6 quarters after the first launch.
Buyers are paying well ahead of that. Rocket Lab stock trades at 48.9 times its sales over the past twelve months, against 3.2 times for the S&P 500, and with a net loss its price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful. At that price, investors appear to be paying for the growth, for Neutron launches already booked and for profits the company has yet to earn.
How Far Has Rocket Lab Stock Fallen In Shocks?
The stock has dropped further than the S&P 500 in each of the five market shocks since 2022. During the 2022 inflation shock and Fed tightening, the stock fell 70%, compared with 24% for the S&P 500. In the 2023 yield shock, it fell 46% while the index fell 9.5%. During the 2025 US tariff shock, Rocket Lab fell 37%, against 19% for the index. So the size of a Rocket Lab position matters as much as the decision to own one.
What Must Go Right For Rocket Lab?
The risk looks worth taking only while Rocket Lab keeps turning its backlog into revenue and Neutron reaches the pad in 2027. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue of $270 million to $290 million. Rocket Lab is expected to report that quarter in February 2027. Fourth-quarter revenue against that guide, and progress on Neutron’s Stage 1 tank, are what to watch in that report.
Not Sure Rocket Lab Is Worth It At This Price?
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