The Bear Case: How RH Behaves During Market Shocks
Holding equities means accepting volatility as the price of long-term compounding. Across the 11 major systemic shocks where RH (RH) traded, the stock posted an average drawdown of -37%. For context, the S&P 500 averaged a -13% decline during those same periods.
If you are an investor in RH stock, you might be asking: if the macroeconomic environment fractures, how far can this stock actually fall?
One of the ways to understand this is to simply see how the stock has performed during past market crashes.
How Does It Handle Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk?
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2025 US Tariff Shock (Feb 2025 to Jun 2025)
- The Trump administration announced 145% tariffs on Chinese imports on April 2, 2025, representing the most aggressive trade action since the 1930s.
- Equities and the dollar fell simultaneously, signaling lost confidence. Supply chain disruptions and small-cap input inflation drove broad declines, affecting nearly all sectors.
RH stock experienced -62% drawdown during this event, compared to -19% for the S&P and -3.8% for bonds.
What Happens During Growth & Demand Scare?
2020 COVID-19 Crash (Feb 2020 to Apr 2020)
- A novel coronavirus triggered pandemic fears. Italy’s healthcare collapse and a March 2020 Saudi-Russia oil price war signaled uncontainable disruption.
- Governments shut economies, triggering the fastest bear market in history. Unlimited QE and $2.2T fiscal stimulus drove a V-shaped recovery following vaccine development.
RH stock saw -68% drawdown vs -34% for the S&P and -0.7% for bonds.
How It Fares During Rate & Valuation Shock?
2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market (Jan 2022 to Oct 2022)
- CPI hit 9.1%, forcing aggressive tightening since Volcker. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further spiked global energy and food prices.
- Stocks and bonds fell simultaneously, eliminating the 60/40 hedge. Rising rates crushed long-duration assets until CPI declined in October 2022.
The drawdown for RH stood at -61% compared to -24% for the S&P and -35% for bonds.
Past Market Shock Drawdowns Summarized For RH
| Shock Event | S&P | Bonds | Sector | Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | -0.2% | -17% | None | None |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | -6.8% | -5.0% | -7.9% | -44% |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | -12% | -4.4% | -13% | -64% |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | -3.7% | -15% | -3.9% | -21% |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | -19% | -2.2% | -20% | -13% |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -34% | -0.7% | -34% | -68% |
| 2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market | -24% | -35% | -36% | -61% |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -6.7% | -4.3% | -8.1% | -27% |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -9.5% | -17% | -14% | -45% |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | -7.8% | -1.2% | -11% | None |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -19% | -3.8% | -22% | -62% |
[1] 2013 Taper Tantrum: Bernanke’s taper hint spiked Treasury yields, triggering emerging market capital flight.
[2] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[3] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[4] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[5] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[6] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[7] 2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[8] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[9] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[10] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[11] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.
So What Can You Do For Your Investments?
Ultimately, surviving a market crash requires knowing what breaks your specific holdings. For RH, the kryptonite is clearly Sovereign & Geopolitical Risk. By sizing your positions with these specific drawdowns in mind, you can remove emotion from the equation entirely.
Adopting objective and rule-based portfolio management is the most effective way to protect capital when the macro environment inevitably fractures again. Trefis High Quality Portfolio is designed with such principles in mind, and has returned > 105% since inception.