How Will Regions Financial Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Regions Financial (NYSE:RF) is set to report its earnings on Friday, January 16, 2026. The company has $25 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.4 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.2 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Regions Financial’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 1.7%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -1.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/17/2025 | 1.0% | 3.2% | 6.9% |
| 7/18/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% |
| 4/17/2025 | 0.7% | 7.1% | 17.8% |
| 1/17/2025 | -1.3% | -0.2% | 0.6% |
| 10/18/2024 | -0.7% | -0.9% | 9.9% |
| 7/19/2024 | 0.0% | 2.1% | -2.7% |
| 4/19/2024 | -0.5% | 3.2% | 6.2% |
| 1/19/2024 | 3.7% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
| 10/20/2023 | -12.4% | -12.4% | -0.4% |
| 7/21/2023 | -3.1% | -1.9% | -4.0% |
| 4/18/2023 | 2.8% | -4.8% | -9.8% |
| 1/20/2023 | 4.6% | 7.0% | 10.0% |
| 10/21/2022 | -1.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% |
| 7/22/2022 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 10.9% |
| 4/22/2022 | -0.8% | -0.9% | -6.5% |
| 1/20/2022 | -5.2% | -0.9% | 1.1% |
| 10/22/2021 | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 7/23/2021 | 0.7% | 3.0% | 5.6% |
| 4/23/2021 | 1.7% | 8.2% | 12.2% |
| 1/22/2021 | -0.3% | -1.0% | 16.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -1.0% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 9.2% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.4% | -12.4% | -9.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 9.6% | -35.4% | -19.6% |
| 3Y History | 22.9% | -47.0% | -31.0% |
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