Can Reddit Stock Double From Here?
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A 13.4% decline in the two weeks from its October 12 close to October 26, 2026, leaves Reddit (RDDT) stock at a price that tempts buyers to step in. Whether the shares can double from here may hinge on Reddit’s ad revenue, which grew 64% last quarter. Such a doubling has happened before. Within a year of its past drops, the stock’s best price was a median 220.1% above its dip-day price. So what did buyers who held on for a full year end up with?
What Did Buyers Of Reddit’s Past Drops Make?
Half of those buyers made money, and their gains were large. Since March 21, 2024, Reddit stock has fallen more than 20% in 30 trading days six times. Four of those drops now have a full year behind them. The stock traded higher a year later following two of the four drops, both from 2024, and the median result across all four was a 57.5% gain. The two drops from 2026 are too recent to judge.
Those gains required a wait. At the median, the stock’s lowest close in the year following a drop sat 18.8% below its dip-day price. The best price arrived a median 235 days, or nearly eight months, after the drop.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median RDDT price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 6 | -2.5% |
| 63 trading days | 5 | 0% |
| 126 trading days | 5 | 79.0% |
| 252 trading days | 4 | 57.5% |
| Dip date | RDDT price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | RDDT price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | -20.0% | 4.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-02-02 | -22.1% | 4.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2025-10-22 | -23.9% | 3.0% | -22.0% | 31.4% | 83 | -38.2% |
| 2025-03-07 | -26.4% | -6.0% | -1.0% | 102.1% | 195 | -35.1% |
| 2024-08-14 | -25.2% | -1.0% | 315.0% | 348.6% | 366 | -1.1% |
| 2024-05-08 | -21.1% | 0% | 116.0% | 338.2% | 275 | -2.5% |
| Median of 4 complete windows | – | – | 57.5% | 220.1% | 235 | -18.8% |
Reddit Is Still Growing And Making Money
Revenue reached $805 million in fiscal Q2 2026, up 61.1% from a year earlier. Ad revenue contributed $762 million to that total and grew 64%, though management expects growth to slow. The operating margin climbed to 28.8%, up from 13.6% in the same quarter a year before. The company brought in $1.03 billion of cash from operations over the past twelve months, and it carries almost no debt.
The shares still cost more than the market. At the October 26 close, Reddit traded at 30.6 times its past twelve months of earnings, compared with 22.9 for the S&P 500.
The open question is how far growth slows. Management expects third-quarter revenue to grow 47% to 49%, which sits below the second quarter’s pace. On the July 30 call, management also said search referrals were choppy in the quarter, that Reddit’s visibility on search remains low, and that the range of outcomes on data licensing is wide.
What Must You Believe To Buy Reddit Now?
You have to be ready for a deep further fall, because Reddit stock has had one before. Following both drops in 2025, the stock’s lowest close within a year sank more than a third below the dip-day price. After the 2024 drops, it barely slipped below that price before it rose.
To buy now, you have to believe this drop will end like the 2024 ones rather than the 2025 ones, and that Reddit’s ad revenue will keep growing fast enough to be worth a price above the market’s. Revenue growth in Reddit’s third-quarter report, set against management’s guide, is the number to watch.
Does This Mean You Should Act On RDDT?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
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