How Will Roblox Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, October 30, 2025. The company has $88 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.8 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-1.0 Bil in operating losses and net income of $-880 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Roblox’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 61% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 10%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -21%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2025 | 10.3% | 7.4% | 1.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.9% | 5.1% | 29.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | -11.1% | -14.9% | -24.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | 19.9% | 22.6% | 16.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -6.4% | -12.9% | 4.9% |
| 5/9/2024 | -22.1% | -15.4% | -8.7% |
| 2/7/2024 | 10.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11/8/2023 | 11.8% | 11.9% | 13.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | -21.9% | -21.1% | -23.7% |
| 5/10/2023 | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% |
| 2/15/2023 | 26.4% | 5.3% | 27.1% |
| 11/9/2022 | -21.0% | -6.2% | -18.4% |
| 8/9/2022 | 1.4% | 0.9% | -11.6% |
| 5/10/2022 | 3.4% | 37.7% | 31.5% |
| 2/15/2022 | -26.5% | -37.7% | -36.8% |
| 11/8/2021 | 42.2% | 40.3% | 62.1% |
| 8/16/2021 | -1.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| 5/10/2021 | 21.3% | 20.2% | 42.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 10.3% | 7.9% | 16.2% |
| Median Negative | -21.0% | -15.2% | -18.4% |
| Max Positive | 42.2% | 40.3% | 62.1% |
| Max Negative | -26.5% | -37.7% | -36.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -10.5% | 10.3% | -17.1% |
| 3Y History | -53.4% | -14.9% | 33.6% |
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