Up 43% In A Month, Will uniQure Stock See Further Gains?

QURE: uniQure logo
QURE
uniQure

uniQure stock (NASDAQ: QURE), a gene therapy company, has seen a stellar 43% rise in a month, significantly outperforming the broader NASDAQ Biotechnology index, which grew 20%. This can be attributed to the company reporting positive findings from clinical trials for its Huntington’s Disease treatment – AMT-130. The findings show that AMT-130 is well tolerated with no significant safety issues even a year after the treatment. [1] This is primarily seen as a positive for the company, given that AMT-130 is wholly owned by uniQure. If approved, AMT-130’s potential peak sales could be north of $2 billion, making it a significant drug in the company’s pipeline.

But now that QURE stock has seen a sharp rise of 43% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a fall for QURE stock over the next month. Of 64 instances in the last eight years that QURE stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 43% or more, only 25 resulted in QURE stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 25 out of 64, or about a 39% chance of a rise in QURE stock over the next month. See our analysis of uniQure Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last eight years’ data

  • After moving 19% or more over five days, the stock rose on 40% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving 19% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 50% of the occasions in the next ten days.
  • After moving 43% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 39% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
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This pattern suggests a higher chance of QURE stock seeing lower levels in the next five days and next month, while it has an equal chance of a rise or a fall over the next ten days.

uniQure (QURE) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: QURE highest at 19%; CNCT lowest at -29%
  • Ten-Day Return: ENDP highest at 64%; CNCT lowest at -52%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: ENDP highest at 47%; LIVN lowest at -12%

While QURE stock may see lower levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Boston Scientific vs. Corcept Therapeutics.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Jul 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 QURE Return 22% 10% 307%
 S&P 500 Return 3% -18% 74%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 6% -18% 221%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/11/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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Notes:
  1. uniQure Press Release, Jun 23, 2022 []