Can PayPal Stock Fall To $50?

PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL), the global leader in digital payments, has struggled in 2025, with shares down about 19% year-to-date to around $70. As investors weigh whether the stock’s weakness signals a buying opportunity, there’s another pressing question: could PayPal’s momentum falter further and drag the stock closer to $50? Let’s break down the thesis.

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Core Thesis: The Path Back to $50

Growth Normalization & Valuation Risk

PayPal delivered roughly $31 billion in revenue in 2024, rising about 9% year-over-year, but far from the double-digit growth that once defined its story. Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached around $1.6 trillion, but expansion has slowed to single-digits as e-commerce growth cools and competition stiffens.

At $70 per share, PayPal trades at ~14x forward earnings and just under 3x forward sales, cheaper than fintech peers like Block. Still, if revenue growth remains subdued and margin gains stall, investors could push for a steeper discount. A contraction to ~12x earnings or closer to 2x sales would imply a stock price near $50.

The key insight: PayPal doesn’t need a collapse to face downside. Modest growth disappointments or stagnant profitability could be enough to reset expectations.

Key Bearish Drivers

• TPV Growth Slows – Expansion has cooled sharply from the pandemic boom, raising questions about long-term scalability.
• Margin Pressure – Operating margins hover near 20%, but competition and rising compliance costs could weigh on profitability.
• Venmo Monetization Lag – Despite user scale, Venmo’s revenue impact is still limited, leaving a gap in growth acceleration.
• Competitive Headwinds – Apple Pay, Block’s Cash App, and traditional banks are chipping away at PayPal’s wallet dominance.

Of Course There Are Bullish Offsets

• Restructuring & Cost Cuts – PayPal has taken steps to streamline operations, boosting efficiency and free cash flow (over $5 billion in 2024).
• Scale Advantage – With 430 million active accounts, PayPal still commands one of the largest user bases in global fintech.
• Emerging Growth Engines – Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), crypto integration, and small-business lending add optional upside.
• Solid Profitability – Unlike many fintech peers, PayPal remains consistently profitable with healthy cash generation.

The Verdict

At $70, PayPal has disappointed investors in 2025, but the debate is far from over. If TPV growth keeps slowing and Venmo fails to deliver meaningful revenue, the stock could slide toward $50. Yet, stronger cost discipline, accelerating BNPL adoption, or a rebound in digital commerce could validate today’s valuation—or set the stage for recovery.

For investors, PayPal is a classic turnaround story: enormous scale, dependable profitability, but uncertain growth momentum. At $70, the stock reflects tempered expectations. At $50, it would reflect deep doubt in its ability to re-accelerate. Whether the next move is up or down hinges on management’s ability to reignite growth without sacrificing margins.

Investors should be prepared for significant volatility and the potential for substantial losses if market conditions deteriorate or if the company fails to execute on its ambitious growth plans. While the upside potential is mathematically sound based on projected revenues, it requires flawless execution in a rapidly evolving and competitive landscape. Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period — and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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