Oklo Stock To Increase 50% More?

Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO), the advanced nuclear technology company developing small modular reactors (SMRs), has seen its stock surge in 2025. Shares now trade near $120, up massively year-to-date, having grown over 5x, as optimism grows around nuclear’s role in powering data centers, industrial demand, and the clean-energy transition. But investors are asking: could Oklo rise 50% more, approaching $200 per share? Let’s break down the thesis.

But if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Separately, see – Can Gold Lose Its Shine?

Photo by geralt on Pixabay

Core Thesis: The Path to $200

Revenue Ramp & Valuation Reset
Oklo is still pre-revenue today, but its commercial pipeline tells a very different story. The company has disclosed ~14 GW of customer interest for its SMRs, which could translate to $5+ billion in annual revenue by 2028 if execution goes to plan. At today’s price near $120, Oklo is valued richly relative to its zero revenue base, yet compared to potential revenues, it trades at under 4x 2028 sales — in line with many clean-energy peers. If Oklo scales to $5 billion in sales and investors apply even a slightly higher 6x revenue multiple – not unusual for high growth clean energy names – the stock could realistically trade near $200 per share — a  60% rise from current levels.

The insight here is simple: Oklo doesn’t need perfect execution or lofty multiples to deliver upside. Commercial deployment plus even modest valuation normalization could power a step-change in value.

Key Growth Drivers

• Data Center Power Demand – With AI workloads exploding, hyperscale operators are desperate for reliable, carbon-free baseload power. Oklo’s SMRs are designed to run continuously and fit the profile perfectly.
• Expanding Order Pipeline – Customer interest already sits at ~14 GW, representing billions in potential contracted revenue. Early commitments from data centers, utilities, and industrial operators underscore demand visibility.
• Vertical Integration – Acquisitions like Atomic Alchemy are helping Oklo secure a future nuclear fuel supply, reducing a key bottleneck and supporting cost control.
• Regulatory Momentum – The NRC licensing process remains challenging, but Oklo has made measurable progress. Federal support for advanced nuclear through tax credits and clean-energy mandates is strengthening tailwinds.
• Path Toward Profitability – While losses are heavy today, the SMR model carries high operating leverage. Once the first few plants are online and PPAs begin generating cash, margins could turn positive faster than investors expect.

Of Course There Are Risks

• Pre-Revenue Status: With no current revenues, Oklo remains entirely a “promise” story until commercialization begins.
• Licensing & Delays: NRC approval timelines are unpredictable. Any setback could push commercialization years further out.
• Capital Intensity: Building and deploying nuclear reactors requires billions in funding. Shareholder dilution is a real risk.
• Execution Risk: Cost overruns, supply chain issues, or technical setbacks could pressure economics.
• Valuation Skepticism: Given its surge, investors may hesitate to assign higher multiples without clear revenue visibility. Also, the report of insider selling has led to stock weakness yesterday and today.

The Verdict

At $120 per share, Oklo trades like a moonshot — richly valued against zero revenues but still with room to run if commercialization unfolds as expected. If revenues ramp toward $5 billion by 2028 and the market assigns multiples in line with peers, the math supports a share price in the $200 range — a potentially realistic move from today’s levels.

That said, Oklo remains one of the most speculative stories in the market: high risk, high reward, entirely dependent on execution and regulatory progress. For investors with conviction in nuclear’s role in powering the AI/data center era and the broader clean-energy transition, Oklo offers asymmetric upside.

Investors should be prepared for significant volatility and the potential for substantial losses if market conditions deteriorate or if the company fails to execute on its ambitious growth plans. While the upside potential is mathematically possible based on projected revenues, it requires flawless execution in a rapidly evolving and competitive landscape.

Now, we apply a risk assessment framework while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period —and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. . Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates