How Will Phillips 66 Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $66 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $132 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.4 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Phillips 66’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.0%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | 4.5% | 6.2% | 13.3% |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| 7/25/2025 | 0.5% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 4/25/2025 | -0.7% | -1.2% | 9.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -2.5% | -0.0% | 4.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.4% | -6.1% | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.8% | -6.2% | -3.5% |
| 4/26/2024 | -3.7% | -8.5% | -8.5% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | -2.8% | 0.5% | 2.3% |
| 5/3/2023 | 1.3% | -0.8% | -0.7% |
| 1/31/2023 | -5.8% | -7.8% | 1.8% |
| 11/1/2022 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 4.9% |
| 7/29/2022 | 1.1% | -6.1% | 5.9% |
| 4/29/2022 | -0.5% | 8.4% | 17.8% |
| 1/28/2022 | -1.8% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 10/29/2021 | -2.6% | 0.2% | -7.9% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.5% | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| 4/30/2021 | -0.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 1.6% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.6% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 8.4% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -8.5% | -8.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -30.9% | -20.8% | 35.5% |
| 3Y History | -18.6% | -23.2% | 64.1% |
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