Is Post Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
Post (POST) stock is down 8.1% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around falling net income despite sales growth, and declines in cereal and pet food volumes, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Post stands today.
- Size: Post is a $5.5 Bil company with $7.9 Bil in revenue currently trading at $99.42.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 0.8% and operating margin of 10.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 1.33 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: Post stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 6.9
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 45.2% within a year. See POST Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell POST Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is POST stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose POST stock falls another 20-30% to $70 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- POST stock fell 19.2% from a high of $76.83 on 14 May 2021 to $62.09 on 1 December 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 January 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $120.72 on 2 December 2024 , and currently trades at $99.42
| POST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -19.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 44 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- POST stock fell 36.2% from a high of $73.34 on 17 January 2020 to $46.83 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 April 2021
| POST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -36.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 394 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- POST stock fell 19.0% from a high of $57.86 on 10 April 2017 to $46.88 on 21 March 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 19 July 2018
| POST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 120 days | 120 days |
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