Is Post Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
Post (POST) stock is down 8.1% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around falling net income despite sales growth, and declines in cereal and pet food volumes, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Post stands today.
- Size: Post is a $5.5 Bil company with $7.9 Bil in revenue currently trading at $99.42.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 0.8% and operating margin of 10.4%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 1.33 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: Post stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 15.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 6.9
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 45.2% within a year. See POST Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell POST Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is POST stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose POST stock falls another 20-30% to $70 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- POST stock fell 19.2% from a high of $76.83 on 14 May 2021 to $62.09 on 1 December 2021 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 January 2022
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $120.72 on 2 December 2024 , and currently trades at $99.42
| POST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -19.2% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 44 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- POST stock fell 36.2% from a high of $73.34 on 17 January 2020 to $46.83 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 April 2021
| POST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -36.2% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 394 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- POST stock fell 19.0% from a high of $57.86 on 10 April 2017 to $46.88 on 21 March 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 19 July 2018
| POST | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 120 days | 120 days |
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