POOL Stock Falls -20% On A 5-day Losing Spree After Earnings Shock
Pool (POOL) – a distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and maintenance products. – hit a 5-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -20%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $2.0 Bil over the last 5 days and currently stands at $8.1 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 4.5% compared to 0.2% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Q4 Earnings and Revenue Miss
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- Q4 EPS of $0.84 missed estimates of $0.99
- Q4 Revenue of $982.2M missed estimates of $998.3M
- Impact: Significant Price Decline, Increased Selling Volume
[2] Rising Costs and Margin Pressure
- Q4 Operating expenses increased 6% year-over-year
- Q4 Operating income decreased 14% to $52.0 million
- Impact: Negative Investor Sentiment, Concerns over Future Profitability
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are several things to fear in POOL stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell POOL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -20% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for POOL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | POOL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -14.5% | -0.3% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | -19.6% | -1.1% |
| 1M (21D) | -16.2% | 1.0% |
| 3M (63D) | -8.2% | 2.8% |
| YTD 2026 | -4.5% | 0.2% |
| 2025 | -31.8% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -13.4% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 33.5% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 42 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 47 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 13 | 35 |
| 4D | 23 | 5 |
| 5D | 5 | 5 |
| 6D | 0 | 2 |
| 7D or more | 1 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 42 | 47 |
Key Financials for Pool (POOL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $5.5 Bil | $5.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $746.6 Mil | $617.2 Mil |
| Net Income | $523.2 Mil | $434.3 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.8 Bil | $1.5 Bil |
| Operating Income | $272.7 Mil | $178.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $194.3 Mil | $127.0 Mil |
The losing streak POOL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.